Vladimir Putin, born in 1952, was only 48 years old and in his prime when he was elected President of the Russian Federation in 2000.
Now, over twenty years later, at the age of 70, Putin must begin considering who will succeed him.
There has been much speculation about Putin's successor, with names including Dmitry Medvedev, former Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and even his daughter Yekaterina and cousin Roman.
As time passed, these candidates have gradually been ruled out. Putin’s successor is expected to be extraordinary.
After Putin entered his fifth term, Alexey Dyumin, once seen as a rising star, left Tula Oblast to become a presidential aide and was promoted again within half a month, suggesting that his candidacy is almost certain.
On May 29, the Russian Sputnik News Agency reported that Putin signed an order appointing Alexey Dyumin, who was recently the Governor of Tula Oblast and became a presidential aide on May 14, as Secretary of the State Council of the Russian Federation. This order took effect from the date of signing.
This news led to widespread belief that Dyumin is highly likely to be Putin’s successor, and considering his resume and political experience, this speculation seems even more credible.
According to the Russian Constitution, the State Council is a legislative body whose main duties include coordinating the work of various government departments, ensuring the development of major internal and external policies, and overseeing economic construction efforts.
The State Council was established in 2000, with the President serving as its chairman. Members include the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the State Duma, the Chief and Deputy Chiefs of the Presidential Administration, presidential aides, the Chairman of the Federation Council, and heads of federal subjects, among others.
From these prominent positions, it is clear that the State Council’s scope of power is very broad, and becoming its Secretary is highly significant.
Dyumin, born in 1972, is the son of a Major General who served as Director of the 4th Directorate of the Military Medical Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense, closely associated with former Defense Minister Pavel Grachev.
Dyumin himself graduated from the Voronezh Higher Military Radio Electronics School in 1994 and was assigned to the Moscow Military District for technical counterintelligence work.
In the 1990s, due to insufficient funding, the Russian military was plagued by disorder and corruption, and the Moscow Military District was no exception.
The following year, Dyumin was transferred to the Federal Protective Service through his father’s connections, responsible for communications during senior leaders' travels.
In the summer of 1999, Dyumin was transferred to the Presidential Security Service, directly involved in the security of the Russian President, coinciding with Putin becoming President later that year.
During Putin's first two terms, Dyumin served in the presidential security team.
In 2008, when Putin became Prime Minister, Dyumin became his close aide and soon took on the role of head of the Presidential Security Service, but his true moment of prominence came after he left Putin’s side.
Starting in 2014, Dyumin served as Deputy Director of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU), directly leading GRU special forces, reflecting Putin's trust in him.
Dyumin indeed achieved significant accomplishments.
During the 2014 Crimea crisis, Dyumin successfully orchestrated GRU special forces operations in Crimea, playing a crucial role in Crimea’s annexation by Russia.
It is also reported that the successful escape of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to Russia was orchestrated and commanded by Dyumin.
These actions elevated Dyumin’s status in Putin's eyes, and in 2015, he was awarded the rank of Lieutenant General and became the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff, and later that year, Deputy Minister of Defense, responsible for procurement and project management.
However, intriguingly, before he could settle into his role as Deputy Defense Minister, the Governor of Tula Oblast suddenly resigned in 2016, and Dyumin was transferred to serve as Governor, a position he held for over seven years until this May when he was called back to Moscow to serve as presidential aide and then promoted to Secretary of the State Council.
Looking back, it seems that as early as 2015, Dyumin had already become a favored candidate for Putin's succession.
Besides his "red" background and long tenure in federal protection services, his successful leadership of GRU operations also demonstrated his capability and loyalty.
Dyumin’s long-term work in the military and security systems meant he lacked experience in local governance, so serving over seven years as Governor of Tula Oblast, not far from Moscow, was clearly to accumulate political experience.
After all, the ability to govern a region is a necessary test for becoming President.
More importantly, Dyumin is sufficiently young. Shoygu is only three years younger than Putin, Lavrov is three years older, and Patrushev, once seen as the most hopeful successor, is a year older than Putin.
Technocrat Mishustin, at 58 this year, is also not an ideal choice.
Dyumin, however, is only 52 this year, full of passion and energy. In a few years, when Putin steps down, a 58-year-old Dyumin succeeding as President would be ideal.
From this perspective, Putin is well aware of the pitfalls of gerontocracy.
He witnessed firsthand how the Soviet Union lost three top leaders—Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko—in less than two and a half years.
Back then, Yeltsin chose the young Putin as his successor, and for Putin, choosing a young successor is equally important.
In stark contrast, across the ocean, the United States seems to be following the Soviet example.
By the end of this year, we will see a 78-year-old Trump facing off against an 81-year-old Biden.
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