Recent reports indicate that Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina plans to visit India in July, followed by a visit to China in August. According to Bangladeshi media, this arrangement reflects the country's strategy of maintaining a balance between China and India.
Considerations behind the visit arrangements
Why did Hasina choose to visit India first, and then China?
Evidently, this is a carefully considered decision by the Bangladeshi government.
China does not interfere in the internal and foreign affairs of other countries, nor does it require them to take sides, but India is different.
India has long regarded itself as the "regional hegemon" of South Asia and interferes in the internal and foreign affairs of South Asian countries through various means.
Therefore, for Bangladesh to develop relations with China, it must take into account India's reaction.
Bangladesh is surrounded by India on the east, west, and north, with only a small southeastern part bordering Myanmar and the southern part facing the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, any cooperation between China and Bangladesh will be closely watched by India.
Bangladeshi government sources revealed that the deepening of China-Bangladesh cooperation has already made the Modi government uneasy.
In May this year, China and Bangladesh will hold their first joint military exercise.
Although this exercise is based on "peacekeeping and counter-terrorism operations," with major projects including hostage rescue and clearing terrorist camps, it has still raised India's vigilance.
Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated at a media conference that India will closely monitor all actions of neighboring countries, especially those affecting national security and economic interests, and will take corresponding measures.
India's concerns
Indian analysts claim that the China-Bangladesh joint military exercise may force Bangladesh into the Sino-Indian "Cold War."
They believe that Bangladesh, as a developing small country, should not participate in military exercises to avoid causing trouble.
India's reaction shows their high sensitivity to China-Bangladesh military cooperation.
India is concerned that the deepening of cooperation between China and South Asian countries will affect their dominance in the region.
Even if South Asian countries wish to develop relations with China, they cannot ignore India's presence.
This is especially evident in Bangladesh, which cannot disregard India's feelings like the Maldives might.
Maintaining a balance between China and India
Bangladeshi government sources revealed that Hasina’s visit to India is intended to ease India's dissatisfaction with China-Bangladesh cooperation.
She will also inform the Modi government of her plans to visit China, seeking understanding and support.
On the surface, this approach seems to show Bangladesh being influenced by India, but in fact, it also reflects Bangladesh's desire to deepen cooperation with China.
Bangladesh's dilemma
Bangladesh is unable to confront India on its own, but it wants to develop relations with China, so it can only seek a balance between China and India.
They strive to gain India's understanding in order to carry out deeper cooperation with China.
Even if India ultimately does not understand, Bangladesh's intentions are clear, and India cannot stop the trend of China-Bangladesh cooperation.
China's strategic patience
China does not require South Asian countries to take sides, as long as they do not harm our core interests.
It is foreseeable that some South Asian countries will choose to maintain a balance between China and India. They need to consider India's influence while also needing China's support.
This shows the effect of China's layout in South Asia, as South Asian countries begin to rely on China for economic support and security guarantees.
The competition between China and India in South Asia will not end quickly, but we have time to wait for favorable changes in the South Asian region.
Although the Indian Ocean is not China's strategic priority for now, China's competition with the United States in the Asia-Pacific region is key.
Comments