Should the population be large or small? What is the deeper meaning behind the numbers? Both high and low populations have been criticized.
China has a population of over 1.4 billion, and due to this large base, no matter where you go, you will see crowded places.
Especially during the annual recruitment season, for a single position, there are often dozens of people competing, leaving a deep impression.
Facing this situation, people often complain that China has too many people and envy countries with smaller populations, like Canada and Australia.
These countries have large land areas, but their populations are smaller than that of a single Chinese province.
A smaller population means less competition in daily life and better distribution of welfare.
Therefore, many people think China’s population should be reduced by one or two hundred million, or even halved.
But can population reduction really solve the problem?
Why has China relaxed birth restrictions over the past decade?
From a numerical perspective, relaxing restrictions seems to increase the population, and various measures have been introduced to encourage childbirth.
This confuses many people: the population is already large enough, so why encourage more births?
Population experts believe that China not only should encourage births but should have adjusted its birth policy around the year 2000.
On the surface, the total population is large, but there are more complex issues hidden underneath.
The key lies in changes in the population structure, such as the gender ratio, the proportion of elderly people, and the proportion of the working population, which have far-reaching impacts.
The Imbalance in Population Structure
Take Japan as an example: it has a severe aging problem, with a high proportion of elderly people and an insufficient proportion of young people, leading to a lack of social vitality.
Despite the Japanese government's long-term encouragement of childbirth, the trend of increasing elderly population is hard to reverse.
Western developed countries also face similar issues, though to a lesser extent.
In developing countries like India, Vietnam, and some African countries, despite having large populations, the proportion of young people is higher, giving them a vibrant appearance.
These countries have ample labor forces, whereas aging countries like Japan face labor shortages and have to rely on delayed retirement or immigration.
Some European countries, like the UK and France, also need a lot of immigrants to ease labor shortages.
On the surface, these countries seem attractive due to their development and lenient immigration policies, but the deeper reason is their need for young immigrants to supplement the labor force.
China's Specific Situation
China also faces an imbalance in its population structure.
In the past decade, the male population exceeded the female population by 30 million.
Data from 2021 shows that the male population exceeded the female population by 34.9 million.
This gender imbalance makes it difficult for the appropriate age group to marry.
In some places, the gender ratio of newborns is as high as 116.9:100, far exceeding the normal ratio.
Additionally, the aging population problem is becoming increasingly serious.
Over the past 10 years, the proportion of people over 65 years old increased from 4.63% to 13.5%.
According to predictions, if the total fertility rate remains at 1.8, the proportion of elderly people will reach 26% by 2025; if it drops to 1.3, the proportion will reach 27.8%.
In the next 20 years, the proportion of elderly people will continue to rise, while the proportion of the working population will decline.
Reduction in Labor Force Population
Currently, the population aged 15 to 64 in China has not exceeded 1 billion, and it is expected to drop to 790 million by 2050. If the total fertility rate remains low, it may drop to 696 million or even lower.
This will lead to the disappearance of the demographic dividend, insufficient labor force, and great challenges to economic development.
Impact on the Future
Take Japan as an example: its economic golden period was from the 1950s to the 1980s, but after the 1990s, as the elderly population increased, social vitality declined, and the economy stagnated.
If China does not respond in time, it might face similar issues.
Population experts predict that by 2032, if China continues to experience negative population growth, it may lack social vitality like Japan.
India's Situation
India has a population comparable to China’s, but a higher proportion of labor force population and a later aging trend.
By 2050, the proportion of elderly people in India will be only 14%, and the labor force will remain sufficient.
Therefore, some worry that India may surpass China in innovation and competitiveness in the future.
The population issue is not just about numbers; more importantly, it’s about the health of the structure.
The root of many issues China faces lies in the imbalance of the population structure.
The impact of population changes often takes decades or even centuries to manifest, so population policy must have a long-term perspective.
In the future, some effects of population changes will gradually become apparent, and the world will feel them.
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