In the current international trade environment, France, as part of the European Union, has taken the lead in supporting the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. However, this decision has unexpectedly turned France into the biggest loser.
Faced with the EU's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and reject China's proposals, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce quickly responded by announcing temporary anti-dumping measures on brandy imported from the EU, which is expected to put at least 4 billion yuan in deposit pressure on brandy manufacturers.
China's "countermeasure" immediately made EU officials feel threatened, prompting them to start urgent negotiations with China, but they encountered three pieces of bad news in succession.
Unexpectedly, France, known for its luxury goods, suffered a heavy blow in this trade dispute.
The turning point of this sudden event came after China implemented temporary anti-dumping measures on EU brandy.
This measure struck like a heavy hammer, directly impacting one of the pillars of the French economy—the brandy industry.
For a long time, French brandy has enjoyed a prestigious reputation in the global market, and China, as one of its largest consumer markets, is particularly important.
Now, French exporters are faced with high deposits, increasing operational costs, and are expected to suffer a fatal blow to many small and medium-sized wineries.
Moreover, the rapid spread of this news has triggered a decline in stock prices within France's luxury goods industry.
The market values of well-known brands such as LVMH, Kering Group, and Hermès International have experienced significant fluctuations.
Investor concerns over the deterioration of Sino-French relations have prompted them to reassess their investment prospects in the Chinese market. Given that China is the world's largest luxury goods consumer market, this panic is understandable.
France's predicament is not an isolated case; it reflects a series of issues faced by the entire EU.
As events evolved, internal contradictions within the EU gradually became apparent.
The EU, which should have been united, has shown severe divisions on how to respond to China.
Germany, with economic forecasts downgraded to -0.2%, appears particularly vulnerable, even facing the risk of recession.
In this context, France seems to see an opportunity to impose tariffs, attempting to suppress Germany's economic competitiveness.
This internal competition has further exacerbated the fractures within the EU, as countries that should work together to face external challenges are now consuming their strength through internal strife.
These divisions are reflected not only in economic policies but also in the uniformity of the EU's China policy.
Some countries advocate for a tough stance, while others prefer dialogue with China.
This inconsistency severely weakens the EU's ability to act and significantly reduces its influence on the international stage.
In response to the EU's tariff measures, China's reaction has been swift and precise.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce conducted a thorough investigation of the brandy market, and not only stopped at the anti-dumping measures on brandy but also took a series of actions to apply economic pressure on multiple related products.
For example, China announced export controls on aerospace components and related technologies, which could have far-reaching effects on Western countries' high-tech industries.
At the same time, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has begun to pay attention to EU products such as pork, dairy products, and large-displacement fuel vehicles.
This series of measures is like a Damocles sword hanging over the EU; although not yet specifically implemented, the signal has already caused unease in relevant industries, as the Chinese market is crucial for these products.
These countermeasures target specific weaknesses of the EU, demonstrating China's maturity and confidence in the international trade game.
They clearly name the targets while leaving room for negotiation, exerting enormous pressure on the EU while also providing space for future discussions.
Looking back at the entire development of the event, how did the EU arrive at this point? Perhaps it is closely related to the changes in leadership.
During Merkel's tenure, Germany's economic cooperation with China and Russia promoted the EU's prosperity. Although there were internal differences, a balance was generally maintained.
Merkel's pragmatic diplomatic style earned the EU valuable development opportunities.
However, with von der Leyen taking office, EU policies began to shift in a more aggressive direction.
In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the China-Europe trade war, whether the EU's hardline stance was a strategic misjudgment remains inconclusive, but the current economic predicament seems to provide some hints.
It is worth noting that European Council President Michel recently met with senior Chinese officials during the ASEAN summit. Does this indicate that the EU recognizes its previous policy errors and is prepared to adjust its direction?
The answer to this question may gradually emerge in the coming months.
Now, the dilemma faced by the EU is not only the decline in economic data but also a loss of strategic positioning.
For a long time, the EU has prided itself on being a defender of free trade; however, imposing tariffs of up to 36.3% on Chinese electric vehicles seems to contradict this principle.
This contradiction not only affects its credibility in international trade but also raises internal doubts.
Faced with this change, the EU finds itself in a dilemma: on one hand, it wants to protect its own industries; on the other, it does not want to lose the vast Chinese market.
This contradictory mindset leads to indecisive policies that may ultimately leave all parties dissatisfied.
Singapore's successful experience provides a reference for European countries. This small Southeast Asian nation has found a balance amid US-China trade frictions and European economic turmoil, thanks to its flexible economic policies.
Singapore does not rely entirely on the Chinese market nor blindly follow external policies, making it an ideal base for international businesses.
Through digital transformation and industrial upgrading, Singapore has demonstrated strong resilience, offering significant insights for other countries.
Overall, France's experience in this trade dispute is a result of the intertwining of internal divisions within the EU and external pressures. How the EU adjusts its strategy to address the increasingly complex international situation will be a topic worth watching.
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