The U.S. military announced that it would withdraw some of its troops from the Ryukyu Islands, which has attracted widespread attention and speculation.
According to the U.S. Marine Corps, starting from December this year, about 4,000 soldiers from the 19,000 U.S. troops currently stationed in the Ryukyu Islands will be relocated to Guam, and another 5,000 soldiers will be transferred to Hawaii or the U.S. mainland.
This withdrawal plan is expected to be completed around 2028.
Although the U.S. government and military have claimed that this is part of a pre-established plan and referred to the U.S.-Japan roadmap for realignment of U.S. forces signed in 2006, the timing of the large-scale troop withdrawal from the Ryukyu Islands has led to speculation about whether the U.S. is preparing to abandon the First Island Chain.
According to a report by Kyodo News, the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) stated that this relocation plan was formulated in 2012 with the goal of reducing the number of U.S. troops stationed in the Ryukyu Islands to about 10,000.
The official explanation is that this is due to the continuous protests by the residents of the Ryukyu Islands against the U.S. military presence over the years.
However, this explanation is not entirely convincing.
Firstly, why was a plan formulated in 2012 only starting to be implemented 12 years later?
Secondly, the discontent of the Ryukyu residents with the U.S. military presence has been long-standing, but it did not lead to any changes in the military deployment before.
There might be more complex reasons behind this troop withdrawal.
Kyodo News mentioned in their report that with the continuous enhancement of China's military power, the Japanese government is strengthening its defense posture under these circumstances.
Is the large-scale withdrawal of U.S. troops related to China's military rise?
In fact, the U.S. military's concerns about China's air and naval forces and long-range strike capabilities have long been no secret.
In July 2023, then-Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and now Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Samuel Paparo, admitted in an interview on the USS Nimitz that U.S. bases within 3,000 kilometers of the Chinese mainland are completely exposed to Chinese missile strikes.
The U.S. military will not easily admit to a strategic defeat in Asia.
They are adjusting their strategy, withdrawing more troops from the First Island Chain, and handing over combat tasks to countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
In this context, the U.S. military has established Littoral Combat Regiments to respond to challenges from the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
The U.S. Marine Corps Commandant, Eric Smith, stated that these Littoral Combat Regiments will be deployed in Guam in the coming years.
Although this unit is relatively small, it is equipped with advanced anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, air defense systems, and precision-guided rocket artillery, responsible for stopping the PLA's attacks on key islands.
However, these small units will face high risks when operating without cover.
While withdrawing from the First Island Chain, the U.S. military is also trying to stretch the PLA's front and supply lines, hoping to expand the battlefield from the East China Sea and the South China Sea to the broader Philippine Sea.
The goal of the U.S. military is to continue leveraging its sea and air power advantages while exposing the PLA's flanks to threats from Japan and Australia, forming an overall defensive posture.
This strategy, although imaginative and bold, also carries significant risks.
Once the U.S. military withdraws from the First Island Chain, the security of Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands will be severely threatened, potentially even affecting Japan's security.
Moreover, the PLA's long-range strike capabilities could directly threaten Guam, a critical node for the U.S. military.
Will the U.S. military's withdrawal trigger a chain reaction? If the U.S. loses control of the First Island Chain, can Guam become the new defense cornerstone?
Can the PLA's offensive be effectively curbed? These are questions that will need to be closely watched in the future.
In any case, the U.S. military's strategic adjustments in the Asia-Pacific region will have profound impacts on regional security.
In such a severe situation, whether the U.S. military will regret handing over the First Island Chain to China remains to be seen.
What is certain is that the military game in the Asia-Pacific region will enter a new stage, and the future situation will be more complex and volatile.
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