Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that the EU's attempt to reinstate mandatory conscription in member states is a waste of effort.
He emphasized, "We will never let Hungarian youth participate in someone else's war."
Orbán had previously warned against Europe's conscription plan.
In an interview on May 26, Orbán said, "The idea of a European army with mandatory conscription must be forgotten; it is completely insane."
He also noted, "Perhaps in 10 years, people will view the current situation as the prelude to World War III." This is undoubtedly a stern warning.
Who is pushing for Europe's conscription?
The main proponent of this plan is the President of the European People's Party (EPP), Manfred Weber.
Weber, a member of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, Germany, ran for President of the European Commission in 2019 but was unsuccessful.
The EPP comprises center-right parties from multiple countries, including Germany, Spain, Poland, Romania, Italy, France, Austria, and others. It is currently the largest party group in the European Parliament, with a conservative stance and is a major pro-EU force.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, they advocate for a tough stance.
Previously, Weber called for European countries to provide all possible military aid to Ukraine.
With the European Parliament elections approaching on June 6, the EPP is expected to maintain its status but may lose some seats. Thus, proposing a striking topic is a common electoral strategy.
In fact, 16 European countries have mandatory military service, 10 of which are EU members.
France piloted the reinstatement of "short-term mandatory military service" in 2019 but suspended it in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Germany's stance shift is another reason for the heated discussion on conscription.
In early April, the German Defense Ministry announced reforms to the armed forces' command structure and plans to discuss reinstating conscription, which was abolished in 2011.
This is seen as preparation for the potential escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In February, France stated it did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, further heightening the tension around conscription.
Historical background of universal conscription
The real intentions behind France and Germany's proposals remain unclear. Analysts believe it could be a test of autonomous strategy or a tactic to pressure Russia.
However, it is certain that universal conscription was a Cold War-era system.
At that time, NATO and Warsaw Pact countries almost all implemented mandatory military service to prepare for potential wars.
After the Cold War, as the situation eased, most European countries gradually abolished conscription.
France did so in 1991, Spain in 2001, Italy in 2005, Poland in 2008, and Germany in 2013.
The U.S. switched to a volunteer military system in 1973 due to the failure in the Vietnam War.
The key to reinstating conscription lies with major countries rather than smaller ones.
The Baltic states have fewer active-duty soldiers, but France, Germany, Italy, and Spain have potential mobilization forces exceeding 500,000.
Germany and Italy are currently discussing reinstating conscription.
If reinstated, it would cast the shadow of the Cold War over Europe once again.
### Obstacles to reinstating universal conscription
Despite the heated discussion in Europe about mandatory conscription, there are many obstacles to reinstating it.
Firstly, the use of increased troops is a problem.
If for homeland defense, how will it coordinate with other European countries and NATO?
If deployed to Ukraine, it would require United Nations Security Council authorization, which is clearly impossible.
Secondly, funding is an issue.
The EU and its member states have already pledged or provided nearly €140 billion in aid to Ukraine, with much of the funding not yet in place.
Reinstating conscription would significantly increase expenditures. However, the EU's economic situation is poor, especially in Germany.
The belief that conscription could boost the military industry and economy is unrealistic.
Only France has advocated that aid to Ukraine should prioritize buying EU-made weapons, but most EU countries rely on U.S. equipment.
Increasing troops would only expand the demand for American products.
Orbán's frequent warnings about reinstating universal conscription are due to the immense risks involved.
Even if the plan ultimately falls through, the cold war memories and trust fissures it brings will be hard to erase.
Comments