If Japan Sinks, Which Country Would Accept Japanese Refugees? Why Are Japanese Netizens Confident That China Would Extend a Helping Hand?
With global climate change and environmental degradation, many coastal countries and island nations face significant risks.
Japan, as a highly developed island nation, is no exception.
Suppose one day Japan truly sinks due to natural disasters or climate change, over 100 million Japanese people would need a new place to settle.
Which countries have the capacity to accommodate these people, and why would they be willing to do so?
Japan is a country frequently hit by natural disasters. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis are constant threats.
In 2024, Japan experienced frequent earthquakes, particularly in Tochigi and Fukushima Prefectures, highlighting the fragility of Japan's natural environment.
Scientists predict that in the coming decades, Japan could face a devastating earthquake, with a magnitude potentially exceeding 9. Such an event would pose a massive threat to Japan's survival.
In addition to earthquakes, global warming and rising sea levels have become major challenges for Japan’s future.
Japan is an island nation surrounded by the sea, and many important cities like Tokyo and Osaka are located in coastal areas.
If sea levels continue to rise, these regions could suffer from frequent floods and coastal erosion, further exacerbating Japan's survival pressures.
Moreover, after the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster, Japan began discharging nuclear wastewater into the ocean, further deteriorating the marine ecosystem and severely impacting the fishing industry, forcing more people to consider the possibility of migration.
In this context, Japan’s future might see large-scale population migrations, but the question is, which country would be willing to accept such a large number of refugees?
As of now, four countries might offer help.
In the face of Japan’s potential sinking crisis, a few countries may serve as a refuge for Japanese refugees.
Based on current international relations and geopolitical considerations, the United States, South Korea, Brazil, and Australia are seen as the most likely countries to accept Japanese refugees.
First is the United States.
As a long-term ally of Japan, the relationship between the U.S. and Japan has been very close since the end of World War II.
The presence of U.S. military bases in Japan proves the deep military cooperation between the two countries.
Additionally, the two nations collaborate extensively in areas like technology, culture, and economy.
If Japan faces a national crisis, the U.S. might consider accepting some Japanese refugees for strategic reasons.
However, in recent years, U.S. immigration policy has become more conservative, and domestic debates on immigration are highly contentious. This raises uncertainty about whether the U.S. could accept a large number of Japanese refugees.
Next is South Korea.
South Korea and Japan have a high degree of economic interdependence, and the two countries closely cooperate in areas like trade and technology.
As a neighboring country, South Korea has extended help to Japan in the past during earthquake disasters.
If Japan faces a survival crisis, South Korea might consider accepting some Japanese refugees due to geopolitical pressures.
However, given South Korea’s relatively small land area and limited resources, accepting a large number of Japanese refugees could put significant pressure on Korean society, especially in a politically complex environment.
The third country that might accept Japanese refugees is Brazil. Although Brazil is far from Japan, the two countries have historical immigration ties.
In the early 20th century, a large number of Japanese immigrants settled in Brazil. Today, Brazil has a sizable Japanese immigrant community, with over 2 million people.
However, Brazil itself faces issues of uneven economic development and complex public security. Whether Brazil has the capacity to accept more Japanese immigrants remains questionable.
Lastly, Australia.
As a resource-rich, sparsely populated country, Australia has close trade ties with Japan.
In theory, Australia has the capacity to accept Japanese refugees.
However, in recent years, Australia’s immigration policies have become increasingly conservative, particularly regarding Asian immigrants.
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