In recent days, there has been a significant and sudden downturn in the French financial markets, a situation that appears highly unusual.
Does this imply that someone is taking advantage to strike against France?
As an important country in Europe, France has always given the impression of economic stability, but its potential political risks cannot be ignored, often leading to various crises.
Recent events have once again highlighted this point.
France is not only a major power in Europe but also boasts a rich and illustrious history of civilization, having experienced the glory of wars during the French Revolution and Napoleon era, but also deeply shadowed by World War II.
Despite the overall economic downturn across Europe in recent years, France's economic performance has remained relatively stable.
In 2021, France's GDP growth rate reached 6.44%, 2.45% in 2022, and 0.9% in 2023, all higher than other major European countries.
However, France is also a country of significant contradictions. Its society pursues ideals of liberty, equality, and fraternity, yet this often leads to unrest.
Last year's youth riots lasted for months, and this year the situation has become even more unstable, especially with recent economic turmoil and significant declines in assets, almost becoming a "black swan" event for France in 2024.
In the recent European Parliament elections, President Emmanuel Macron's party, La République En Marche, suffered a crushing defeat, losing to longstanding rival National Rally.
National Rally garnered over 31.7% of the vote, while La République En Marche only managed 14.9% support.
Faced with this situation, Macron had to announce the dissolution of the National Assembly and call for early elections.
Some view this move as a desperate gamble, while others see it as transparent, but regardless, the storm has arrived and seems unstoppable.
On June 30th, France will hold the first round of National Assembly elections, exacerbating the economic and financial storm caused by political turmoil.
Many are concerned that the risks facing France may be too great.
French stock markets, bond markets, and the currency market have all faced selling pressures, with significant withdrawals of international capital.
The French bond market has experienced its most severe sell-off in years, and the stock market capitalization has nearly evaporated by nearly $200 billion.
The yield on French 10-year government bonds briefly soared to 3.328%, reaching its highest level since November last year.
Recently, the EU announced an investigation into several countries, including France, whose debts exceed the EU's 3% limit, further exacerbating uncertainty in the French economy and financial markets.
As a presidential system, Macron wields immense power in France.
Despite appearing somewhat passive in the face of this political turmoil, he still maintains overall control.
However, why has such a large-scale crisis storm suddenly erupted?
Firstly, internal political risks in France continue to escalate, with heightened tensions between the left and the far right. Macron has even warned that these "extreme" parties could incite a "civil war" in France.
Some experts believe that if National Rally wins in this parliamentary election, Macron may have to share power with the parliament, losing some authority.
National Rally, however, has almost ensured victory in the elections.
Political turmoil has brought significant economic risks, and the widespread withdrawal of capital is a common reaction.
Furthermore, if the far-right National Rally comes to power, they could completely change France's current stable economic policies, bringing immense uncertainty for France's future.
French Finance Minister Le Maire also warned that if National Rally takes power, it would be disastrous for domestic peace and the economy.
However, the French people have grown weary of years of political and economic stagnation, yearning for change.
Thus, the current economic and financial storm in France is actually the result of a combination of internal and external factors.
To some extent, Macron's policies attempt to cater to the French people's desire for independence and autonomy, yet his performance often seems more about slogans than actual action.
Six to seven years in power seem to have brought about little real change.
Even so, France always appears independent and often becomes a target of external intervention.
If this economic turmoil continues, Macron may no longer be able to control the situation.
If right-wing forces take power, it will not only affect the French economy but also bring significant impact and uncertainty to the whole of Europe.
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