Indian Prime Minister Modi's ambitions in recent years have been quite extraordinary!
He not only hopes to make India a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council but is also actively promoting the internationalization of the rupee.
These two goals sound grand, but they face numerous challenges in practice.
Today, we will analyze how Modi's "dual ambition" is progressing.
Since taking office, Modi has continuously emphasized India's desire to join the ranks of permanent members of the UN Security Council while hoping for the rupee to become an international settlement currency.
However, these two goals remain elusive. Why is that?
Under Modi's efforts, India has sought international support, actively engaging with leaders from various countries to elevate India's global standing.
He has even been willing to abandon India's long-standing non-alignment policy, forging closer ties with some Western countries.
However, this path has not been as smooth as imagined.
The five permanent members are very cautious about sharing power.
Although the U.S. verbally supports India, it is not willing to see changes in the UN power structure.
Russia has a relatively friendly relationship with India but also does not want another competitor.
As for China, it firmly opposes India's bid for permanent membership.
Additionally, India's complex relationships with neighboring countries affect its ability to garner support.
The antagonistic relationship with Pakistan and tensions with countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka lead many nations to doubt India's international ambitions.
Domestic issues cannot be overlooked either. The wealth gap, underdeveloped infrastructure, and prominent social conflicts raise doubts about whether India qualifies to be a permanent member.
An anonymous diplomat once stated, "How can a country that struggles to solve its own problems demand greater power from the international community?"
In addition to seeking permanent membership, Modi also hopes to internationalize the rupee, making it an international settlement currency.
While this idea is appealing, the actual situation presents significant challenges.
First, India’s economic foundation is still not strong enough. Although India ranks high globally in terms of GDP, its per capita GDP remains low.
Moreover, there is a notable gap in manufacturing and technological innovation capabilities compared to developed countries, which limits the rupee's international influence.
Second, India’s financial market is insufficiently open. Foreign investments face many obstacles when entering the Indian market, and the rupee's exchange rate is not fully market-based, hindering the process of internationalization.
More critically, the dollar's dominant position in the global monetary system is unlikely to be shaken in the short term.
As the world's primary reserve currency, the dollar's status is built on America's strong economic and military power.
If the rupee aims to challenge the dollar, it is akin to striking a rock with an egg—clearly a difficult task.
At the same time, high inflation and a current account deficit in India also constrain the rupee's internationalization, and confidence in the rupee in international markets remains inadequate.
Why is Modi so fixated on permanent membership and the internationalization of the rupee?
Ultimately, it stems from India's dream of becoming a major power.
As the world's second most populous country, India has long believed it should play a more significant role on the international stage.
Joining the Security Council would enhance India's international voice, while the internationalization of the rupee would boost its economic influence.
Both goals are important steps toward realizing India's aspirations as a major power.
However, the question is whether India's strength aligns with its ambitions.
Some argue that India should prioritize resolving domestic issues like poverty, education, and the environment before pursuing international status.
After all, how can a country that struggles to ensure the basic livelihoods of its people play a larger role internationally?
Looking ahead, the road to achieving permanent membership and the internationalization of the rupee remains fraught with challenges.
According to UN data, India's per capita GDP is only about one-third of the global average.
To become a true economic powerhouse, India has a long way to go.
In terms of currency internationalization, data shows that the rupee accounts for less than 1% of global foreign exchange reserves.
In contrast, the dollar accounts for over 60%, and the euro for about 20%.
For the rupee to become a major international currency, it likely requires decades of effort.
Of course, this does not mean India’s efforts are in vain.
As a rapidly developing country, it is reasonable for India to seek greater international influence. The key lies in being pragmatic and progressing step by step.
Instead of pouring all efforts into securing permanent membership and promoting the internationalization of the rupee, Modi should first focus on addressing core domestic issues.
For instance, improving infrastructure, enhancing education, upgrading industries, and tackling poverty are fundamental to India’s rise.
Only by truly strengthening national power can India’s international status naturally improve.
While Modi's "dual ambitions" are impressive, the path to achieving them is often more complex than envisioned.
If India wants to become a true global powerhouse, there is still a long road ahead.
コメント