In recent years, Modi has actively engaged in diplomatic activities on the international stage, aiming to enhance India’s global influence.
However, Modi faces multiple challenges domestically, particularly the ongoing turmoil in the northeastern state of Manipur, where the situation is becoming increasingly severe.
Since September 7, Manipur has once again erupted into armed conflict, resulting in numerous casualties.
Although Modi has dispatched police forces to control the situation, the conflicts have not subsided, raising concerns that the intense scenes from May of last year may be repeated.
Indian media reports indicate that approximately 900 individuals from the Kuki ethnic group in Myanmar have crossed into Manipur. They have not only received jungle warfare training but also carry modern weapons such as drones.
Currently, the conflict in Manipur primarily revolves around the rivalry between the Kuki and Meitei communities.
The Kuki people express strong dissatisfaction with the Meitei's demand to enter the "Scheduled Tribes" list, believing it will harm their rights.
The Indian government has shown a preference for the Meitei community on this issue, leading to a drastic decline in the Kuki's trust in the government.
The Meitei’s demographic and cultural advantages in the region make the government more inclined to support them, undoubtedly exacerbating the conflict between the two groups.
This long-standing rivalry has intensified divisions within India, with the Kuki even proposing the slogan of "secession from India."
In this context, the influence of the United States cannot be ignored.
In the recent conflicts, the Kuki have begun using weapons such as drones and rockets, which they previously did not possess.
This change has raised alarm within Modi's government, possibly indicating that external forces are intervening in India’s internal affairs.
Many observers point out that these weapons may have been supplied by the Kachin Independence Army of Myanmar, which is backed by the United States.
Months ago, the Indian government revealed that the CIA was planning to establish a new country in the border regions of India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.
Currently, Myanmar’s turmoil continues, and Bangladesh's political situation remains unstable, further confirming India’s initial concerns.
For Modi, handling this situation is particularly tricky, as he cannot afford a serious conflict with the United States.
Currently, the U.S. is fully focused on containing China, and India’s neutral policy provides benefits to the U.S.
Recently, during dialogues in the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), the U.S. once again extended an "olive branch" to India, expressing willingness to jointly establish semiconductor factories to support India’s manufacturing development.
As a result, Modi's attitude toward the U.S. can be described as "love-hate."
In this situation, Modi’s government has no choice but to adopt compromise measures, inviting some relevant individuals and organizations to India for consultations in search of solutions.
According to Reuters, India has extended an invitation to local armed groups opposing Myanmar's military government.
Sources reveal that among the invited groups is the Kachin Independence Army.
Clearly, Modi is quite troubled by the potential involvement of the Kachin Independence Army in India’s internal affairs and hopes to resolve this issue quickly.
If India indeed invites Myanmar’s opposition armed groups for discussions, Modi will undoubtedly have to make certain concessions in exchange for the Kachin Independence Army’s non-interference in Manipur’s affairs.
Whether this concession is directed toward the Kachin Independence Army or the U.S. is well understood by the public.
However, regardless of how Modi compromises, the ultimate beneficiaries are unlikely to be the Kuki people.
With the core conflicts unresolved, it will be quite challenging for the conflicts to subside quickly; even if they temporarily calm, future outbreaks remain possible.
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