Indonesia, now leading Southeast Asia, boasts the world's fourth-largest population, reaching 264 million, trailing only China, India, and the United States.
Notably, China, as the world's second-largest economy, exerts pervasive influence.
India, as the world's second-most populous nation, though economically lagging, holds a significant position on the international stage.
The United States, being the world's largest economy, wields undeniable influence across various domains.
However, despite Indonesia's status as the world's fourth-most populous nation and Southeast Asia's largest economy, with vast landmass (approximately 1.9 million square kilometers) and a GDP reaching $1.01 trillion in 2017, it seems few would take notice if not for events like the ongoing Asian Games.
Compared to Southeast Asian nations like Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, Indonesia's presence seems relatively subdued. Why is this so?
1. The dispersed geographical structure hampers the formation of robust national comprehensive strength.
Indonesia, known for its archipelagic nature with 17,508 islands, faces challenges due to its extreme dispersion. These islands not only vary in number but also span over 5,000 kilometers from east to west.
This highly dispersed geographical structure impedes overall national development and economic growth.
Though air and sea routes connect the islands, shipping costs are high, capacity is limited, and airport distribution is constrained.
While shipping offers higher capacity, it's slower. Compared to countries primarily relying on land-based railways and roads, Indonesia's transportation efficiency falls far below the norm.
Presently, Indonesia's territory consists of five major plates, including Kalimantan, Sumatra, Irian, Sulawesi, and Java.
The narrowest distance between Sumatra and Java is only 26 kilometers, which could be bridged by constructing a sea-crossing bridge.
However, the distance between other plates spans hundreds or even thousands of kilometers, hindering economic connections and development.
Due to excessive dispersion among the plates and limited national finances, Indonesia can only concentrate funds on a few major islands.
As a result, infrastructure on other islands lags behind, impeding economic development.
Therefore, Indonesia's overly dispersed geographic structure hampers overall economic development and cooperation among the plates, making it difficult to form complete industrial chains.
Someone might question why Japan, also an archipelago, has become a developed nation. Let's delve into that.
Japan consists of four main islands — Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu — and over 7,200 smaller islands, earning it the moniker "Land of a Thousand Islands."
Despite being distributed over four main islands, the connections between Japan's islands are much tighter.
For instance, the narrowest distance between Kyushu and Honshu is less than 1 kilometer, connected by roads and railways. The distance between Honshu and Shikoku is just 20 kilometers, also linked by roads and railways.
Although Honshu and Hokkaido are relatively distant, they are connected by Japan's Shinkansen bullet train.
The connections between Japan's islands far exceed those of Indonesia, and centrally located cities on land can drive development in surrounding areas.
In contrast, Indonesia's islands, spread across vast seas, face significant connectivity challenges, with central islands having weaker effects on surrounding areas.
Notably, Java, the largest island in Indonesia, is home to over half of the country's population and serves as its political and economic center.
However, the other four larger islands cannot match Java's economic and political significance, leading to significant regional disparities, hindering coordinated development and preventing Indonesia from effectively consolidating its comprehensive strength.
This is also a crucial reason why Indonesia struggles economically.
2. Lack of a major power strategy hampers influence on regional and international stages.
Although Indonesia is one of Southeast Asia's largest economies, its limited strength and frequent domestic issues divert its main focus to domestic development, lacking the drive to exhibit strong will on regional or international stages, contrasting sharply with India.
India not only strives to be a major power in South Asia and dominate the Indian Ocean region but also seeks global superpower status.
For example, India continually purchases advanced weapons, builds a formidable military force, and seeks a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.
This strategic disparity means Indonesia lacks influence not only internationally but even within ASEAN, where it cannot play a leading role.
3. The proportion of the major ethnic group is less than half, making it difficult to form strong ethnic cohesion.
Historically, Indonesia has not formed a unified nation, with various tribes or states spread across numerous islands, lacking a strong main ethnic group.
Despite Indonesia's population of 264 million, it comprises over 300 different ethnic groups. The largest group, Javanese, accounts for only around 45% of the total population, not even half.
Furthermore, Indonesia's government leans towards Javanese nationalism in its ethnic policies, neglecting or discriminating against minority ethnic groups.
Substantial resources are concentrated on Java Island, while other regions receive little support, leading to local resource drainage and stagnant living standards for residents.
This exacerbates the tendency towards independence among marginalized ethnic groups.
Simultaneously, historical suppression of minority ethnic groups in Indonesia has deepened inter-ethnic hatred and domestic conflicts, making it difficult for minority groups to form strong cohesion.
4. Various internal contradictions and strong divisive forces exist.
Indonesia faces complex issues such as ethnicity, history, religion, corruption, and resource allocation, coupled with its policy of Javanese nationalism, leading to frequent separatist activities.
For instance, there's an Aceh independence movement in the western part of Sumatra, a Papua independence movement in Irian, and an East Timor independence movement (now independent).
Due to the geographical dispersion of the country, with islands isolated in time and space, and the core region of Indonesia located in Java, control over peripheral areas is relatively weak, facilitating the proliferation of separatist forces.
If external powers intervene and support, regions with independence tendencies will follow suit, leading to more areas breaking away from Indonesia.
In summary, Indonesia's excessive geographical dispersion, coupled with various internal issues, makes it difficult for the country to showcase its true strength, lacking international influence and losing its own presence.
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