As soon as Indonesia's new president Prabowo took office, he displayed a notable hardline stance on the South China Sea issue by expelling a Chinese coast guard vessel.
This action has sparked profound concerns and speculations regarding the future trajectory of Sino-Indonesian relations.
What considerations lie behind Prabowo's shift from previously friendly diplomatic visits to intense confrontations?
This also conceals a complex geopolitical struggle.
On October 21, 2024, the Indonesian government announced the successful expulsion of a Chinese coast guard vessel from disputed waters in the South China Sea.
According to reports, Indonesia dispatched naval vessels and aircraft after multiple radio warnings went unheeded, ultimately forcing the Chinese coast guard vessel to leave.
Indonesia also stated that it would strengthen its military deployment in the area to uphold national sovereignty and territorial rights.
This incident quickly drew widespread international attention, marking a significant shift in Prabowo's South China Sea policy since taking office, especially in the exclusive economic zone near the Natuna Islands.
While the Natuna Islands belong to Indonesia, the surrounding exclusive economic zone overlaps with China's claims in the South China Sea, particularly intersecting with China's "nine-dash line."
China claims a historical connection between the Natuna Islands and itself, while Indonesia argues that the Natuna Islands are located near its Borneo Island and that it has long controlled the islands, thus possessing legitimate jurisdiction over them and the associated waters.
Tensions between China and Indonesia escalated due to Indonesia's oil exploration in this area, ultimately leading to the expulsion of the Chinese coast guard vessel.
Indonesia believes that the actions of the Chinese coast guard vessel constituted illegal enforcement within its exclusive economic zone.
The stark contrast between Prabowo's pre- and post-takeover attitudes highlights the dramatic change in his South China Sea policy.
Shortly after his election, he had chosen China as the destination for his first state visit, continuing his predecessor Jokowi's emphasis on relations with China, stressing comprehensive strategic cooperation.
However, after assuming office, Prabowo adopted a hardline position on the South China Sea issue, prompting speculation about the direction of his policy.
Indonesia's assertiveness on the South China Sea issue is not coincidental, but rather the result of multiple intertwined factors.
On one hand, Indonesia aims to secure its control over the Natuna Islands and the surrounding waters to ensure its rights to exploit rich oil and gas resources and drive domestic economic development.
The waters near the Natuna Islands, including the Natuna Sea, the Liyue Reef, and the Zengmu Basin, are regarded as crucial global oil and gas resource areas.
On the other hand, international pressure, particularly from Western countries, is also a significant factor in the shift of Indonesia's South China Sea policy.
During a visit to Australia, Prabowo signed a security cooperation agreement, indicating that Indonesia may have received Western support in addressing the South China Sea disputes, reinforcing its position on the issue.
Additionally, Prabowo's personal political considerations cannot be overlooked.
As the new president, he might need to display a hardline approach on the South China Sea issue to consolidate his authority and leadership position.
This policy not only caters to domestic nationalist sentiments but also showcases Indonesia's determination and strength to the international community.
While this decision can be understood within the framework of Indonesia's national interests, the current situation presents a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges for Sino-Indonesian relations.
The shift in South China Sea policy under Prabowo presents new challenges for Sino-Indonesian relations, but it does not necessarily mean that the two countries' relations will inevitably lead to confrontation.
There remains ample room for cooperation between the two nations, and the future direction will depend on their ability to effectively manage differences and find common ground.
In the fields of trade and investment, there are abundant cooperative opportunities between China and Indonesia.
China is Indonesia's largest trading partner, and Indonesia is also an important participant in the Belt and Road Initiative. The two countries have immense potential for collaboration in infrastructure development, energy cooperation, and other areas.
Recent progress on projects such as the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Corridor has not only propelled Indonesia's economic development but also injected new vitality into bilateral relations.
However, the South China Sea issue remains an uncertain factor in their relationship. Coordinating their respective interests, avoiding escalations, and maintaining regional peace and stability are important challenges that both sides face.
If mishandled, the South China Sea issue could evolve into a significant obstacle in their relationship, potentially even leading to regional turmoil.
Therefore, both parties need to strengthen communication and consultation, enhance mutual understanding, and avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments.
It is crucial to seek solutions through dialogue and negotiation on the South China Sea issue to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Both sides should focus on common interests and deepen pragmatic cooperation to promote the stable development of bilateral relations.
Within the frameworks of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Maritime Fulcrum concept, China and Indonesia can enhance cooperation in infrastructure construction, maritime economy, and technological innovation, achieving mutual benefits.
Though the South China Sea issue is complex, it is necessary to seek solutions through calm communication and diplomatic means.
In light of Indonesia's "sudden change in attitude," China, as a formerly friendly nation, needs to reassess the future of Sino-Indonesian relations.
In pursuing mutual benefits, both sides must adopt a more open and inclusive attitude, strengthen communication and dialogue, and properly manage differences to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea region.
Only through such efforts can Sino-Indonesian relations develop in a healthier and more stable direction, laying a solid foundation for the prosperity of both nations and the region.
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