Modi's Indian Economic Myth: False Dreams or Real Progress?
How has Modi performed since assuming the position of Prime Minister of India in 2014?
In terms of economy, it is undeniable that Modi is leading India towards progress, which is a globally recognized fact.
However, recently American media have raised doubts about this, stating that Modi's "new economic miracle" is only exaggerated and promoted based on personal worship.
For example, a commentary article in Time magazine pointed out that former Chief Economic Advisor of India, Krishnamurti Subramanian, announced on behalf of the International Monetary Fund that India's economic growth rate is expected to reach 8% this year. However, the IMF clarified that this conclusion is not an official opinion and they still predict India's GDP growth rate to be 6.5%.
Similarly, The Economist pointed out in an article that since 2015, the Indian government has changed its GDP calculation method, leading global economists to believe that India's GDP growth rate has been overestimated by at least 2 percentage points.
In this situation, who would want to spread such rumors that are beneficial to the Indian government? The answer may be Modi himself.
At last year's India Independence Day celebration, Modi promised that India would become a developed economy by 2047.
According to sources within the Indian government, Modi has requested government officials to double India's nominal GDP by 2030.
However, to achieve this goal, India's GDP growth rate needs to be maintained at least 8%.
But some economists have pointed out that if the real GDP growth rate can be maintained at 6% to 6.5%, inflation rate can be maintained at 4.5%, and the rupee depreciates by 1-1.5%, then India's total GDP can double within seven years.
Why did Modi work so hard to maintain India's economic growth?
On the one hand, this can indeed increase his personal political influence, and on the other hand, India needs economic support to maintain its strong position internationally.
However, the challenges currently facing India are not optimistic.
During Modi's second term, India's GDP growth rate reached its lowest level since the 1990s, foreign direct investment sharply declined, consumer markets were sluggish, youth unemployment rates rose, household savings reached their lowest level in 47 years, and household debt reached a historic high.
In summary, Modi's economic miracle may have exaggerated elements, but he is also striving to contribute to India's development.
However, facing the current challenges, Modi needs to recognize the gap between his dreams and reality, and take effective measures to solve the current economic problems.
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