After the European Parliament elections, French President Macron failed to defeat the far-right National Rally led by Le Pen, and his governing coalition's support has significantly weakened compared to its initial strength.
Therefore, Macron has decided to take decisive action by dissolving the French National Assembly and calling for early elections.
Some may view Macron's dissolution of the parliament as a sign of surrender, but the reality is different.
Despite being seen as a leader of the left in France, Macron has affiliations across the political spectrum, resembling more of a political chameleon.
His strategy can be summarized as "whoever supports wins."
Macron's primary plan is to unite major left-wing parties in France to form a new leftist alliance to counter the right-wing.
Facing Le Pen's challenge, any single French left-wing party would struggle, hence uniting against the expanding influence of the right-wing is a natural choice.
Macron's envisioned plan with the alliance of left-wing parties—including the Green Party, Socialist Party, French Communist Party, and Unbowed France—eventually materialized as the "People's Front" new political party alliance.
These four parties directly excluded the wavering Macron and formed a coalition against the National Rally.
This move directly led to the failure of Macron's initial strategy to unite the center-left in France against Le Pen.
Currently, the French election landscape has evolved into a competition between the left-wing party alliance People's Front and the right-wing party National Rally, dividing the vast majority of French votes.
Variables also include the crucial support from the French Renaissance Party, led by the centrists, determining the outcome.
Despite the left's reluctance to cooperate with Macron, he successfully attracted pro-European, democratic, and centrist factions within the French government, forming a centrist alliance.
Although the National Rally currently enjoys more support than the People's Front, the French Renaissance Party and its centrist leadership remain a significant force on the political stage.
Their support will decide the ultimate winner.
However, Macron, who once saw himself as a politically versatile figure accepted by both left and right, now finds neither side willing to court him, instead vying for scattered votes elsewhere.
This poses a challenge for Macron, but he still has other options, such as aligning with the traditional French right-wing Republicans.
In particular, conflicts between the Republicans and the National Rally have provided some hope for Macron.
However, Théo, the former chairman, rejected Macron, reportedly considering an alliance with Le Pen and the National Rally, once again thwarting Macron's plans.
This leaves Macron in a predicament.
These setbacks are a real blow to Macron.
For a long time, he was seen as a politician capable of balancing between the left and right, but reality has shown that neither side is willing to support his presidency when faced with a genuine political crisis.
Macron's previous political success primarily relied on his identity as a president and leader of the Renaissance Party.
Losing the support of the ruling party poses a question for Macron, the typical centrist figure, whether he can continue to be relevant.
Now, the French political arena faces the possibility of fundamental change.
Predictions indicate that the National Rally may receive 29.5% of the vote, while the left-wing party alliance People's Front is expected to garner 28.5%, with Macron's camp receiving only 18% of the vote.
Despite having enough power to influence the election outcome, both the left and right are unwilling to cooperate with him, which is a heavy blow.
Once seen as a centrist figure acceptable to both the left and right, Macron now finds himself unsupported by either side in this current political crisis.
This election could trigger fundamental changes in the French political landscape.
תגובות