In recent years, the relationship between India and Mongolia has been growing closer.
India seems to be intent on becoming Mongolia's third neighbor, but what is the reason behind this?
Largely, it is because India is interested in Mongolia's rich mineral resources.
Mongolia has abundant mineral resources, including four major minerals: coal, iron ore, copper, and rare earths.
Mongolia's coal reserves are as high as 300 billion tons, iron ore reserves are 2 billion tons, copper reserves are 2 billion tons, and rare earth reserves are 31 million tons.
In addition, Mongolia also has various other mineral resources.
However, despite Mongolia's rich mineral resources, its economic development is far behind resource-rich Australia.
Australia has become prosperous through its mineral resources, with a per capita GDP of $65,384, while Mongolia's per capita GDP is only $5,867, almost one-eleventh of Australia's.
The main reason Mongolia finds it difficult to become wealthy through its mineral resources lies in its geographical location.
Mongolia is located in the inland area of Asia, and the export of its mineral resources is greatly restricted.
Some people suggest that, since China is known for its infrastructure capabilities, it could build railways to transport Mongolia's minerals to major ports such as Tianjin Port, and then export them to the rest of the world.
If things were really that simple, Mongolia would have already become prosperous. However, reality is much more complex.
First, we need to discuss Mongolia's third-country foreign policy.
Some argue that since Mongolia borders China and Russia, economic and trade cooperation with these two countries should be enough to make it wealthy, so why pursue a so-called third-country foreign policy?
In Mongolia's foreign trade, China accounts for more than 60%, and Russia accounts for 6%, together making up two-thirds of Mongolia's foreign economic and trade exchanges.
Moreover, goods exported from Mongolia must pass through the transportation routes of China and Russia.
Therefore, Mongolia's dependence on China is actually very high.
So, why does Mongolia still pursue a third-country foreign policy?
The answer lies in Mongolia's unease with China and Russia.
Despite the friendly diplomatic attitudes shown by China and Russia over the past 30 years, Mongolia still lacks a sense of security.
Looking around the world, the country most interested in Mongolia's third-country foreign policy is the United States.
The United States is not interested in Mongolia's minerals but rather in its geopolitical strategic location.
The US hopes to plant a thorn between China and Russia.
However, since Mongolia only has China and Russia as neighbors, and given the current tense US-China and US-Russia relations, the US finds it difficult to leverage Mongolia's strategic value.
If the US were to station troops or install monitoring equipment in Mongolia, it would likely face joint strikes from China and Russia.
Therefore, given the close relationship between China and Russia, the US would not easily place its bets on Mongolia.
In recent years, in addition to the US, France and Germany have also been looking for mineral resources in Mongolia, and now India has joined this endeavor.
Unlike the US, France, Germany, and India indeed have a demand for mineral resources.
Germany hopes to find copper in Mongolia, France is looking for uranium, and India hopes to find various mineral resources.
So, can these countries transport the minerals they find in Mongolia back home?
Given the current tense relations between Russia and Europe, and Russia and the US, it is unlikely that Russia would allow these countries to transport minerals through its territory.
In contrast, exporting through China's Tianjin Port is the most economical choice.
Currently, India, France, and Germany are all important partners of China, so transporting mineral resources through China should not be a problem for them.
Despite the border issues between India and China, China became India's largest trading partner in 2023, so India will naturally not overlook this.
France and Germany are important pillars of China-EU economic and trade relations.
However, whether the minerals found by the US in Mongolia can be transported through China depends on the development of US-China relations.
Given the current tense US-China relations, with the US frequently targeting China in global affairs, China may use the minerals found by the US in Mongolia as a bargaining chip.
Although countries such as the US, India, and European countries actively respond to Mongolia's third-country foreign policy, caution is necessary.
The activities of these countries in Mongolia involve not only economic interests but also geopolitical games.
China, in its cooperation with these countries, should weigh the pros and cons and safeguard its strategic interests.
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