In Myanmar, the Kachin population is approximately 1 million, of which approximately 160000 reside in China (as of 2021).
At present, Kachin State is in a fierce conflict (known as Operation 0307), and the Kachin army has captured many Burmese military strongholds, even approaching the capture of Foreigner Street.
With the defeat of the Burmese army in Kokang and other areas, it is expected that they will once again suffer significant setbacks in Kachin State, with thousands of soldiers and some officers surrendering.
For the large-scale military operation of the Kachin Army, there are the following simple predictions:
2. Defeat all Burmese government troops in Kachin State, occupy Myitkyina, Bamo and other cities, and then compete for territory with the Burmese People's Defence Army and Ruokai Army.
Especially the Burmese People's Defense Army will not sit idly by as the Kachin people seize all power resources and drive the Burmese out of Kachin State.
If we open the army, we will not provide free assistance, and there will inevitably be demands.
3. The Burmese army suffered significant losses and lost many territories, causing turmoil throughout Myanmar. The military launched a coup, and Min Ang Lai stepped down. The army reorganized and ostensibly accepted the leadership of Aung San Suu Kyi. The People's Defense Army and the Burmese army merged, and in turn, they attacked the Kachin army. Although the territory occupied by the Kachin army has expanded, it is still limited by the mountainous areas along the China Myanmar border.
The combat effectiveness of the Kachin Army in Myanmar is top-notch compared to the Wa Army, with other ethnic groups including the Burmese Army following suit.
For decades, the Kachin army has been at war with the Burmese army, and although to some extent they have won more than lost, this powerful army has failed to change the fate of the entire nation.
On the one hand, this is limited by the overall situation in Myanmar, and on the other hand, it is also related to the characteristics of the ethnic group itself.
The Kachin people have a strong sense of self-esteem and a tradition of seeking revenge.
In the past, they even had the habit of family feud, but with the changes of time and the progress of civilization, these cruel customs gradually disappeared.
However, the internal unity of the Kachin ethnic group is relatively weak, and there have been multiple incidents of internal division in history.
The cultural traditions of the Kachin people have undergone a split, with traditional oral history conflicting with the spread of Christianity.
The influence of Christianity has led some Kachin people to abandon traditional beliefs, which has caused dissatisfaction among traditional cultural guardians.
In addition, the conflict between geopolitics and cultural emotions has also left the Kachin people in a dilemma. They want to align with the West but are unwilling to completely abandon their traditional culture.
The solution to these problems may lie in peaceful competition, rather than military competition.
Peaceful development can bring civilization and progress, which is deeply reflected in the Jingpo community where I am located.
Therefore, what Myanmar needs is peace, not further military conflict.
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