Since the outbreak of the China-U.S. trade war, the U.S. has consistently allied with its partners to implement various measures to contain China.
As America's most loyal ally, Japan has followed suit without exception, even when such actions sometimes harm its own interests.
For Japan, tightly clinging to America's "leg" is particularly crucial.
However, this is just a superficial observation; fundamentally, Japan has been a "vassal" of the U.S. since World War II, with a depth of control that is difficult to measure.
Looking at Japan's prime ministers, nearly all have been pro-American.
The pressures of realpolitik have led pro-American politicians to dominate the Japanese political scene.
Yet recently, there seems to be a slight shift.
In late September, Shigeru Ishiba, after several attempts, was finally elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party and officially took office as Prime Minister on October 1.
Ishiba is a figure with complex political ideas, evident in his remarks and actions before and after taking office.
Before assuming office, Ishiba stated in a media interview that Japan should build military bases at America's request, framing this as a reflection of trust in the U.S.-Japan alliance.
He also noted the current asymmetry in the alliance, expressing a desire for more equitable relations.
Regarding U.S. forces in Japan, he mentioned that Japanese law lacks sufficient binding power over the U.S. military, which hinders effective prosecution of their illegal actions.
After taking office, Ishiba publicly appointed several "pro-China" officials, disregarding dissent within the LDP, signaling a desire to improve Sino-Japanese relations.
However, on the Taiwan issue, he chose to align with the U.S., inciting pro-independence forces on the island, attempting provocations along China's red line.
Thus, Ishiba's governing philosophy cannot be simply categorized.
Notably, he openly expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. and has begun to make demands based on Japan's national interests.
Compared to previous prime ministers, his attitude is striking; they typically aligned their words and actions, rarely expressing dissatisfaction with the U.S.
Ishiba not only dares to speak out but also made his stance public before the election, unconcerned about American "eyes" in Japan.
His victory reflects the complex feelings of the Japanese public regarding relations with the U.S.
For the U.S., Ishiba's desire to establish military bases on Japanese soil seems like a pipe dream.
However, the U.S. recognizes that to manage Japan effectively, concessions to Ishiba are necessary.
Thus, on his first day in office, the commander of U.S. forces in Japan issued a new directive prohibiting soldiers from drinking off-base between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m., as well as in public during those hours.
This directive is clearly a concession from the U.S.
Given Ishiba's point about Japan's inability to prosecute U.S. forces, the U.S. self-restraint to reduce criminal incidents is a gesture of appeasement.
The U.S. is acutely aware that maintaining good relations with allies is crucial amid its declining power.
If U.S. forces continue to act with impunity in Japan, and Ishiba seizes the opportunity to reduce troop numbers or demand joint management, it could severely impact America's international image.
Thus, the apparent concession from the U.S. is, in fact, a move to protect its own interests, seeking a form of self-reform.
However, the actual effect of this approach may be limited.
For U.S. forces in Japan, ignoring Japanese law has long been the norm.
While the new directive may somewhat constrain behavior, its impact is not significant.
If soldiers violate these regulations again in the future, can Japan effectively enforce its laws?
The answer is no.
Ultimately, those soldiers will still be extradited back to the U.S. for American trial.
Therefore, this is merely a façade, attempting to seek balance between the two countries.
Moreover, if Ishiba tries to leverage the misconduct of U.S. forces for bargaining, he should proceed cautiously.
After all, the U.S. has already made concessions, and expecting further concessions seems unrealistic.
Thus, for Ishiba, the proactive changes by U.S. forces are not good news; rather, they serve as a warning, suggesting he should tread carefully to avoid escalating tensions.
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