China ranks first globally in the number of solid-state battery patent applications over the past five years.
However, Toyota claims to lead the world in the number of solid-state battery patents.
So, who is more competitive in the field of solid-state batteries, China or Japan?
Before answering this question, we need to understand what a solid-state battery is.
The biggest difference between solid-state batteries and liquid-state batteries lies in the state of the electrolyte.
According to the definition of solid-state ionics, solid-state batteries use solid electrodes and solid electrolytes.
The main characteristic of these batteries is low power density but high energy density, making them very suitable for electric vehicles.
According to SNE Research, the market size of China's solid-state batteries is expected to reach $420 million by 2025 and $2.8 billion by 2030.
If solid-state batteries can be widely applied in electric vehicles, the mainstream electric vehicles' range will easily exceed 1,000 kilometers.
Solid-state batteries are still lithium batteries, and the biggest technical challenge is converting the electrolyte from liquid to solid.
Currently, global mainstream research directions are divided into three categories: sulfides, oxides, and polymers.
Japan mainly researches sulfides, while China primarily focuses on oxides. Although both are directions in solid-state battery research, their practical applications differ.
Japan has focused a lot on both fuel cars and new energy vehicles, but it has also invested significantly in solid-state battery research.
As early as 2010, Toyota claimed they had developed a solid-state battery with a range of over 1,000 kilometers.
Last July 4, the Financial Times quoted Keiji Kaita, president of Toyota’s Carbon Neutral Development Center, stating that Toyota had made a technological breakthrough in solid-state batteries, reducing production costs to the level of liquid-state batteries.
If Toyota’s claim is true, they will take the lead in the field of solid-state battery technology development.
Solid-state batteries have not yet been mass-produced and applied in electric vehicles, not because of technical bottlenecks, but because of high costs.
The cost of solid-state batteries is several times that of liquid-state batteries, with the price of a single solid-state battery exceeding that of a car.
For example, a common 150kW battery has a cost between $31,000 and $35,000.
This is just a semi-solid-state battery, with a price equivalent to a NIO ET5.
The cost of fully solid-state batteries is even higher, which would inevitably reflect in the price of electric vehicles.
As a result, the starting price of electric vehicles would be above $56,000, and this is for ordinary electric vehicles.
In February this year, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in February 2024, the price range of the new energy passenger car market was highest at $21,000-$28,000, accounting for 24.6%;
The second highest was $49,000-$56,000, accounting for 16.9%;
$42,000-$49,000 accounted for 12.3%.
In 2021, the main sales price range for new energy vehicles was $11,000.
The fact that the price range of $21,000 to $28,000 has the highest sales proportion indicates that consumers are willing to spend more money on new energy electric vehicles.
However, this does not mean that consumers are willing to accept even higher-priced electric vehicles, but only that they have started to accept electric vehicles and are willing to spend on new energy vehicles as they would on fuel cars.
If the price of solid-state battery electric vehicles were all above $56,000, the market would definitely be abandoned by consumers.
Due to the high cost of solid-state batteries and their inability to be mass-produced for electric vehicles, many have turned their attention to sodium-ion batteries.
Toyota currently owns over 1,000 solid-state battery-related patents.
According to Toyota’s plan, the earliest electric vehicles equipped with solid-state batteries will be launched by 2027, with less than 10 minutes of charging time and a range of 1,200 kilometers.
Toyota has indeed invested early in solid-state battery research, but its public stance on electric vehicles has been inconsistent.
At the beginning of this year, at a regular policy briefing by the State Council, Shen Changyu, the director of the National Intellectual Property Administration, stated that China is still one of the main sources of solid-state battery research technology worldwide.
As of last May, the global number of patent applications for key technologies of solid-state batteries was 20,798, with China accounting for 7,640, or 36.7%.
In the past five years, the annual growth rate of China’s global patent applications for solid-state batteries has been 20.8%, the highest in the world.
Japan is researching sulfide solid-state batteries, but sulfides are highly toxic and can be life-threatening if not handled properly.
This is why China has chosen to research oxide solid-state batteries.
Chinese companies such as CATL, ProLogium Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium have been deeply involved in this field for many years.
Chinese automakers like Changan and NIO are also actively researching the application of solid-state batteries in electric vehicles.
However, globally, solid-state batteries still have many unresolved technical challenges and cannot be commercialized yet.
We can choose to plan and then act like Toyota, or continue to deeply cultivate existing research and make efforts in multiple directions.
China has chosen the latter, focusing on semi-solid-state batteries.
Wu Hui, general manager of the research department of the China Yiwei Economic Research Institute and director of the China Battery Industry Research Institute, said in an interview with the China Energy News that semi-solid-state batteries have improved safety compared to liquid lithium batteries and are currently developing well domestically, with mass production and vehicle installation achieved.
This approach solves the problem of high interface impedance in fully solid-state batteries and finds a balance between cost and range.
The ultimate winner is up to everyone's judgment.
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