In recent years, the relationship between Armenia and Russia has undergone significant changes, transitioning from close allies to a state of severe cooling that can be described as entering a "ice age".
For a long time, Armenia has been a core ally of Russia and a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), often referred to as Russia's "NATO", highlighting their deep military security ties.
However, recent events indicate an unprecedented fissure in this relationship.
Armenia recently rejected the 2024 budget proposal put forth by the CSTO and declared it would no longer provide financial support to the organization's activities.
This decision, while not entirely unexpected, reflects Armenia's gradual distancing from the CSTO and suspension of its participation in CSTO activities.
Armenia sees no obligation to continue paying dues to an organization from which it is increasingly estranged.
On the other hand, Russia contends that Armenia has not formally withdrawn from the CSTO and therefore should fulfill its obligations as a member state, leading to further friction between the two sides.
Beyond the conflicts within security organizations, Russia has also expressed strong dissatisfaction with Armenia's assistance to Ukraine.
Armenia not only sent a delegation to Ukraine but also provided military support, which Russia views as a blatant betrayal of its core interests.
Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson has expressed disappointment with pro-Western Armenian officials, implying they hold no hope for them anymore.
Armenia's actions are clearly aimed at showcasing its stance on the international political stage and attempting to reduce its dependence on Russia in bilateral relations.
By aiding Ukraine, Armenia has sent a strong signal to the West that it is willing to confront Russia, indicating that the relationship between the two countries is irreparable.
Armenia's shift stems from the "Velvet Revolution" in 2018, which led it closer to the West.
Despite Russia's mediation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, subsequent events indicated Armenia had not forgotten its grievances and sought to resolve conflicts with Azerbaijan by relinquishing Nagorno-Karabakh, showcasing its determination in its relations with Russia.
Currently, Armenia is still led by pro-Western leaders, and this trend is expected to continue.
They will continue to seek support from the West to avoid isolation in confronting Russia.
In conclusion, Armenia's relationship with Russia has completely fractured.
Although it has not formally withdrawn from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the differences between the two sides have made them estranged, unable to return to their past friendly times.
Armenia's actions have sparked widespread attention and speculation domestically and internationally.
Some analysts believe Armenia's approach is seeking a new position in the global landscape.
With changes in international political situations, Armenia hopes to gain more political and economic support through closer ties with the West, easing its internal and external pressures and challenges.
At the same time, Armenia is undergoing profound adjustments and reflections internally.
Some political forces believe that rather than relying on a single great power, diversifying its foreign policy in international relations will provide more development opportunities and space.
While this transformation faces multiple internal and external challenges, it also demonstrates the courage and determination of the Armenian government in adjusting its strategic position and role in responding to international changes.
However, this new policy is not without controversy and challenges.
Some political forces and the Armenian public are skeptical of this shift, fearing increased uncertainty in regional security and development, along with concerns over deteriorating relations with traditional allies.
Internationally, Armenia's shift has garnered attention and responses from various sides.
Russia, as Armenia's longtime main supporter and security provider, has shown clear disappointment and resentment towards Armenia's policy adjustments.
Russia is particularly sensitive to Armenia's actions on Ukraine, viewing them as a direct challenge and betrayal of its core interests, complicating the relationship further.
In this context, the Armenian government needs to craft a more precise and meticulous diplomatic strategy to balance external pressures and domestic expectations.
How Armenia manages its relations with different countries and regions while maintaining national security and stable development will be one of the core challenges of its future foreign policy.
In summary, the relationship between Armenia and Russia is undergoing historical changes and adjustments.
Despite facing uncertainties and challenges, the Armenian government is determined to find a new position and development opportunities in international relations to promote the country's long-term stability and prosperity.
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