The Russian military has launched a series of successful offensives in the Kharkiv region of northern Ukraine.
Commanders of the Ukrainian military have complained that the frontline defense in this area is almost nonexistent, with the Russian forces practically "walking in."
With the continued advancement of the frontline, it appears that the Russian side has gained the initiative.
This was supposed to be an excellent opportunity for the Russian military to launch a comprehensive offensive and completely crush the Ukrainian forces.
However, unexpectedly, Putin suddenly proposed a reconciliation offer at this moment.
In fact, Russia has already gained significant advantages in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, enough for Putin to "declare victory" domestically.
During the two-plus years of war, the Russian military has seized about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including the Donbas region, and established important land corridors to Crimea.
This is already sufficient to justify to the Russian people.
Additionally, Russian forces have occupied large swathes of Ukraine's energy and food production bases, which have been Putin's core demands all along.
While not all objectives have been achieved, the gains made have already sparked strong resentment in Ukraine.
From another perspective, the current situation may be the best opportunity for the Russian side to seek a peaceful resolution.
Continuing with a deeper offensive, while it might win more territory, also means potentially escalating sacrifices.
Therefore, after weighing the pros and cons, the Russian side has evidently chosen to pause military actions, consolidate the gains made, and legitimize the existing territorial control through peaceful negotiations to increase bargaining power.
Putin's move indicates his assessment of the war's trajectory.
He believes that with support from Ukraine and the West, it will be difficult for Ukrainian forces to suffer significant defeats again.
And to achieve a complete victory in the war, Russia would need to mobilize comprehensively again, increase troops and supplies, which could lead to serious domestic turmoil.
Thus, with sufficient gains already made, Russia is more inclined to lock in and consolidate its territorial control through peaceful negotiations.
However, Putin faces multiple pressures internally and externally.
Firstly, Russia's manpower reserves are dwindling, and there is resistance to new conscription due to a reversal in urban-rural population distribution.
Secondly, the economic situation in Russia is becoming increasingly dire, with military spending exacerbating economic instability.
Moreover, Putin faces pressure from NATO encirclement and geopolitical confrontation with Western countries.
Although Putin has proposed a reconciliation offer, Ukraine remains highly skeptical and distrustful.
The Zelensky government is unwilling to recognize Russian control over the occupied territories, as it would imply admitting Ukraine's territorial loss and potentially undermine Zelensky's legitimacy.
Meanwhile, the United States and other Western countries oppose Russia's reconciliation offer and continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.
Their aim is to weaken Russia's geopolitical influence, so they are unwilling to see the Russia-Ukraine conflict ceasefire; instead, they hope to further exacerbate tensions and prolong the spread of the conflict.
In summary, although Putin has proposed a reconciliation offer, facing multiple internal and external pressures, this rebooted reconciliation may ultimately end in failure.
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