Since the end of World War II, although the world appears to be calm on the surface, the international situation has been constantly changing, and the so-called wars have never truly ceased.
Russia's conflict with Ukraine, which has been escalating since 2022, has profoundly affected the global political landscape.
Ukraine is backed by strong NATO support, while Russia, out of its own security concerns, cannot allow Ukraine to join NATO.
Amid the changes in the international situation, Russia has faced multilateral sanctions led by the United States, and Europe has imposed a comprehensive ban on its energy trade.
Looking at the international landscape, the only suitable "partner" Russia can find is China.
However, China and Russia will not form a formal alliance, as there have been two historical failures in the past.
To maintain regional stability, expanding trade relations with Russia remains a viable option.
In June 2023, Russia's oil exports to China saw a significant decline, dropping by 50% year-on-year, with daily supplies only reaching 212,000 barrels.
Notably, prior to this, Russia's daily oil exports to China had reached 450,000 barrels.
As a major oil-exporting country, oil trade is an extremely important source of foreign exchange for Russia.
Although Russia has expressed a desire to strengthen cooperation with China, aiming for a trade volume of $200 billion, the current situation indicates that this goal remains far from reach.
Logically, facing multiple sanctions, Russia should have worked harder to seek international trade; however, its oil exports have decreased instead. Why is this the case?
Oil is known as the "blood of industry," with a wide range of uses and is an important natural resource.
Oil appears dark brown and viscous and is essentially a mixture of various hydrocarbons.
As early as prehistoric times, humans began using oil, although they did not understand its nature at the time, only knowing it was flammable.
Both ancient Egypt and ancient China have histories of utilizing naturally occurring oil, which was primarily used for lighting and coatings during prehistoric times.
Entering the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution made people aware of oil's multiple uses, such as in the chemical industry and for lighting.
Since then, oil development has entered a new phase, and the success of Ford in producing engines, along with World War I, further solidified oil's strategic position.
Today, oil has become an important energy source that countries around the world compete to secure.
Geographical factors have led to some countries being rich in oil resources, while others have scarce oil reserves.
The Middle East is the world's largest oil-exporting region, meeting 60% of global oil supply.
The oil reserves in this region have become targets for hegemonic competition.
In modern history, there have been three major oil crises, in 1973, 1979, and 1990.
Each crisis was closely related to changes in the Middle Eastern situation, leading to skyrocketing oil prices and severely impacting oil-dependent countries like the United States and the United Kingdom.
Oil is no longer just an energy source but a resource of significant strategic importance.
According to data, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves globally, while Saudi Arabia is the largest oil exporter.
The crude oil production capacity in the Middle East is very strong, with relatively easy extraction and abundant reserves.
Although Russia's oil reserves reach 80 billion barrels, ranking among the world's top, its overall reserves are still less than those of Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
Despite Russia ranking second to Saudi Arabia in oil export volume, its overall export capacity is affected by various factors.
In June 2023, Russia's oil exports to China sharply declined, and this situation is clearly not a short-term fluctuation but rather the result of multiple influencing factors.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine directly impacts the global situation.
Although Russia has certain advantages in terms of land area and historical strength, the economic pressures and international public opinion pressures arising from the conflict are also quite heavy.
The NATO countries backing Ukraine provide strong support, while sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, especially the U.S. restrictions on Russian oil exports, forcing Russia to seek new markets.
In this context, China has become an important oil trading partner for Russia.
Due to China's huge market demand and geographical proximity to Russia, Russia hopes to compensate for losses in other markets by increasing exports to China.
The sharp decline in Russia's oil exports to China is fundamentally due to the accelerating changes in the global economic landscape.
Russia hopes to profit from oil trade, while China must also strategically plan its energy procurement, making choices based on price.
At the same time, Middle Eastern countries are actively expanding their oil exports, especially Iran, which is seizing this opportunity to lower crude oil prices and attempt to secure a position in the competition.
This forces Russia to confront more intense market competition. Faced with Iranian price cuts, China is clearly not limited to importing Russian oil.
China's energy procurement strategy always adheres to the principle of "buying if cheap."
Although there is a huge demand for oil, it is important not to rely too heavily on it.
Oil is a non-renewable resource, and one day it will be depleted; humanity must find alternative energy sources as soon as possible.
Against this backdrop, China is actively seeking energy transition, striving to develop new energy sources and promote the adoption of new energy vehicles.
In recent years, China has made continuous progress in reducing its dependence on oil, which is also reflected in the decrease in imports of Russian oil, representing a part of national macroeconomic regulation.
According to policy planning, China aims to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
To this end, optimizing and transforming traditional energy and developing renewable alternative energy is a crucial direction for future development.
Currently, the possibility of completely replacing oil remains small, as oil is not only an energy source but is also widely used in various fields such as industry, medicine, and construction.
However, there are differences in oil quality between different countries.
Russian oil, due to aging extraction equipment, tends to be of relatively lower quality, while the Middle East produces higher-quality crude oil due to its mature industrial chain.
When oil prices from the Middle East decrease, China naturally increases its procurement from there, thereby impacting Russia's market position.
The decline in Russia's oil exports to China reflects the current trend, but it may change in the future.
Despite facing the dilemma of reduced export volumes, Russia is still actively exploring other markets, such as India.
Since the Ukraine conflict, Russia has strengthened its trade relations with India, offering many preferential policies to India.
Globally, oil exports and imports are always in a state of balance.
Even under heavy sanctions, Russia can still find a way out.
However, the blockade of the European market has indeed dealt a huge blow to Russia; Europe, which was once the largest market for Russian oil, now struggles to conduct any transactions.
The situation surrounding oil once again reminds us not to over-rely on a single resource to avoid being constrained by other countries.
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