Today, Saudi Arabia finds itself at a crossroads, deciding whether to look West or East. Even the Saudi royal family might not have a clear answer.
As one of the main countries in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is undergoing a challenging economic transformation.
However, events in recent years suggest that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while shrewd, is more of an opportunist than a true strategist.
Saudi Arabia and the entire Middle East face enormous challenges in economic transformation.
The world is well aware that petrochemical energy will eventually be exhausted, and humanity will inevitably transition to new energy sources. This is not a distant future but a rapidly accelerating reality.
Apart from energy, much of Saudi Arabia is desert. This empire, built on oil, is like a pyramid in the desert, always on the verge of collapse.
As the largest energy country in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia feels a deep crisis.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has accumulated substantial wealth by selling oil, and it needs to take action to address future challenges.
Thus, the energetic Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Salman, has initiated a series of efforts, but what results has he achieved?
Recently, an article titled "Saudi Arabia, the Next Silicon Valley?" discussed the grandeur of this year's Saudi LEAP Summit.
Earlier this year, the 2024 LEAP Summit was held at a convention center 80 kilometers from the Saudi capital, Riyadh.
The summit attracted over 1,800 exhibitors from 180 countries, but the core of the stage remained a contest between the two major powers of the East and West.
In Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030, the technology industry is seen as a crucial way to change Saudi Arabia's single oil-based economic model.
Saudi royal family member Lulwa Al-Saud candidly stated that Saudi Arabia hopes to become the next Silicon Valley.
The intention to become the next Silicon Valley is clear: to transform into a hub of technological innovation.
Although the direction is clear, we remain skeptical about whether Saudi Arabia can achieve this goal.
Last month, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visited Saudi Arabia to discuss a new security agreement with Mohammed bin Salman, focusing on a commitment to help Saudi Arabia develop the semiconductor and other technology industries.
Sullivan is confident because the U.S. has a successful precedent in the Middle East—they spent decades supporting Israel, developing its technology industry and modern agriculture, transforming resource-poor Israel into one of the most developed countries in the Middle East.
Sullivan can certainly tell Mohammed bin Salman that Israel has achieved great success, and Saudi Arabia can be the next.
But is this realistic?
Will the Jews allow the United States to foster a powerful competitor next to Israel?
Will the Jewish financial groups that control American wealth abandon Israel and invest in Saudi Arabia?
Will tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Google bypass Israel to support Saudi Arabia?
Now, Saudi Arabia not only dreams of becoming the "next Silicon Valley" but also has several other high-profile projects.
The first is a key project of Vision 2030—the Red Sea New City, aiming to become a world-class tourist destination.
This is an important green low-carbon cooperation project between China and Saudi Arabia, with future power supply entirely from clean energy.
The second is the ambitious super project "The Line," a combination of technological innovation and tourism.
However, recent news suggests "The Line" is significantly downsizing from the planned 170 kilometers to just 2.4 kilometers, a drastic reduction to only 1.4% of the original plan.
In fact, many construction projects for The Line have been contracted to Chinese companies, with some preliminary works already underway. The sudden downsizing clearly involves complex reasons.
The third is the successful grid connection of the first phase of Saudi Arabia's largest photovoltaic power plant, the Al Shubakh Power Station, built by a Chinese manufacturer, on June 5.
This project covers nearly 53 square kilometers and will be fully completed by November 2025.
Not long ago, an American congressman publicly stated, "It's a pity that great projects like the Belt and Road are not America's."
These economic transformation actions and projects indicate that Saudi Arabia's future position remains unclear: does it aim to become a tech center like Silicon Valley?
Or a tourist destination like Dubai?
Or follow China's manufacturing model?
For now, Saudi Arabia does not have a clear direction.
Saudi Arabia's economic transformation is inextricably linked to its current political environment.
This means that whichever direction Saudi Arabia chooses to lean, it may face significant risks.
If it fully turns west, losing strong support from the East could mean the country's future is in jeopardy.
If it looks East, it might face dangers that could even threaten the position of the Saudi royal family.
This is the fate of small countries; they can only walk on a tightrope. Saudi Arabia, while maintaining close relations with the West, is in fact engaging more with the East, a pragmatic yet dangerous strategy.
Unfortunately, with the current tense situation in the Middle East and increasing pressure from the West, time is running out for Saudi Arabia.
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