In recent months, tensions in the South China Sea have been escalating.
Officials in the administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. are gradually realizing that U.S. support is unreliable when it comes to confronting China.
After multiple unsuccessful attempts to seek financial aid from the United States,
the Philippines has even started to threaten the U.S. However, the Marcos Jr. administration finds itself in an awkward position, compelled to continue provoking China, which seems like an inevitable choice.
Why has the Philippine government backed itself into a corner?
Firstly, let’s look at a survey conducted in March of this year.
According to a survey by an independent research group at the University of the Philippines, up to 76% of Filipinos consider China the "biggest potential threat."
This figure represents a 17 percentage point increase compared to the first survey conducted in October 2022.
The reason behind this increase is the constant hype over the South China Sea issue by Marcos Jr. since taking office,
leading to intensified friction between China and the Philippines, and escalating hostility among Filipinos toward China.
In simple terms, the survey results indicate that nearly 80% of Filipinos harbor strong animosity towards China.
Under such strong public pressure, the Marcos Jr. administration is likely to make even more irrational and reckless decisions.
This situation is indeed ironic. When Marcos Jr. first took office, China extended significant goodwill towards the Philippines, aiming to maintain stability in the South China Sea region.
However, the Philippines not only dismissed these gestures but also adopted a confrontational stance against China.
China does not wish for deteriorating relations with the Philippines.
The pitfalls set by the U.S. between China and the Philippines are evident to all. However, if the Philippines insists on being adversarial, China must respond accordingly.
This response should encompass diplomatic, economic, and military dimensions to make the Philippines understand the cost of such provocations.
Domestically, China’s stance towards the Philippines is also very firm.
If a similar survey were conducted in China, it's likely that at least 90% of Chinese would support immediate military action to make the Philippines pay for its actions.
The strongest "hawks" in China are not any specific organizations or individuals but millions of ordinary citizens.
Notably, the survey also reveals that there are still some rational voices within the Philippines recognizing the positive impact of China on their economy.
Unfortunately, these voices are too weak to shift the overall public opinion.
Despite the general trend towards building a "community of shared future for mankind," China may need to deliver a decisive response to the Philippines to eliminate threats in Asia.
Historically, Sino-Philippine relations were not always this tense.
There were times of close economic and cultural exchanges between the two nations.
However, the stance of the Marcos Jr. administration, which is pro-American and anti-China, has worsened bilateral relations.
Rising nationalism in the Philippines and politicians exploiting anti-China sentiments for political gain have exacerbated the conflict.
Meanwhile, the U.S. frequently intervenes in the South China Sea issue, attempting to contain China’s rise, further straining Sino-Philippine relations.
However, the Philippine government should recognize that U.S. support is not reliable.
Historically, the U.S. has often abandoned its allies at critical moments. If the Philippines continues to rely on the U.S., it will find itself in an even more passive position.
In light of the current complex international situation, China needs to uphold its principles while adopting flexible diplomatic strategies.
China should remain calm in the face of Philippine provocations and resolve disputes through multilateral diplomatic channels.
Simultaneously, China should strengthen its defense and economic capabilities to handle potential challenges.
The future of Sino-Philippine relations hinges on the choices made by both governments.
China is willing to maintain friendly relations with the Philippines and pursue common development. However, if the Philippines continues its hostile policies, China is capable of retaliating.
It is hoped that the Philippine government will recognize the vast potential of Sino-Philippine cooperation and abandon confrontational thinking, working towards improving bilateral relations.
In this process, the international community should also play a positive role, encouraging both China and the Philippines to resolve their differences through dialogue and maintaining regional peace and stability.
Through multilateral mechanisms, countries should strengthen cooperation to tackle global challenges and strive for common development and prosperity.
The challenges facing Sino-Philippine relations are rooted in both historical factors and current issues.
China is ready to work with the Philippines through dialogue and cooperation to find solutions.
Only through such efforts can both nations realize their mutual interests and promote regional peace and development.
It is hoped that the Philippine government will consider its actions carefully and make wise choices, avoiding further escalation on a misguided path.
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