The Rise of Yemen's Houthi Movement: From "Slipper Army" to "Missile Power" — Is the Middle East Facing a Reshuffle?
On September 15, 2023, a missile streaked through the sky, striking deep within Israel and capturing global attention.
What is even more shocking is that the attack was not carried out by a traditional military powerhouse, but by the Houthi movement of Yemen, which had previously been viewed as inconsequential.
Adding to the concern, the missile is suspected to be a hypersonic weapon, a cutting-edge technology that even some major powers struggle to master.
Speculations have since poured in, with some proclaiming that the situation in the Middle East is on the brink of transformation, while others question whether there is stronger backing behind the Houthis.
How did the Houthi movement, which once relied on rudimentary weapons and guerrilla tactics, manage to turn the tables and become an internationally recognized "missile power" in just a few years?
What impact will this sudden attack have on the already unstable situation in the Middle East?
Looking back over a decade, the Houthi movement was still an anti-government force active in the northern mountainous regions of Yemen, mocked for its rudimentary equipment and lack of formal training, earning the nickname "Slipper Army."
At that time, they mainly relied on guerrilla tactics to contend with government forces and could hardly be associated with the title of a "missile power."
However, this seemingly weak organization demonstrated remarkable resilience and learning capability.
Faced with challenges from equipment disparities, they successfully modified old missiles and brought them into combat, achieving unexpected results.
In 2015, following the outbreak of the Yemeni civil war, a Saudi-led coalition intervened, aiming to destroy the Houthi forces.
Contrary to expectations, the Houthis not only did not retreat but instead became more emboldened, successfully shooting down Saudi aircraft with their modified missiles, shocking the world and marking a significant enhancement of their military strength.
After initial victories, the Houthis became increasingly dedicated to weapon development.
They began developing drones to exhaust their opponents' air defense capabilities, paving the way for subsequent missile attacks.
Simultaneously, the Houthis actively sought external support for weapons and technology, continuously strengthening their military capabilities.
This development process perfectly illustrates the meaning of a "turnaround." The Houthis transitioned from the initial "militia with rifles" to a formidable force equipped with missiles and drones, becoming a globally recognized "missile power."
The missile attack targeting Israel is believed to have involved the Houthis' newly developed "Palestine-2" missile, with a range of up to 2,150 kilometers and a speed reaching Mach 16, striking its target in about 11 minutes after launch.
These technical specifications place it on par with China's Dongfeng missile series.
The emergence of the "Palestine-2" has sparked widespread concern among the international community, particularly unsettling Western nations.
Hypersonic weapons are seen as a "unique skill" of military powers, and it raises questions how a group like the Houthis, lacking industrial infrastructure, managed to master such technology.
Various speculations have followed, with the mainstream view suggesting that the Houthi's hypersonic missile technology may originate from Iran.
Iran maintains close ties with the Houthis, providing long-term weapons and financial support.
Iran itself has also made progress in hypersonic missile technology, as evidenced by the "Conqueror" hypersonic missile publicly showcased in 2022.
Consequently, many analysts believe that Iran may have supplied the Houthis with relevant technology or even complete missiles.
In response to external doubts, neither Iran nor the Houthis have provided a clear answer.
The Houthi missile attack is not an accident; it is the result of deep geopolitical backgrounds, which will undoubtedly have far-reaching impacts on the Middle Eastern situation.
This attack can be viewed as the Houthis' retaliation against Israeli military actions.
In July of this year, the Houthis had launched attacks against Israeli cities, prompting Israel to retaliate against the Houthi-controlled port of Hudaydah.
This missile attack is clearly a firm response to Israel, demonstrating the Houthis' capability to pose a threat.
Even more intriguing is that on the same day the Houthis launched their missile attack, Hezbollah in Lebanon also attacked multiple targets in Israel.
Although there is no evidence suggesting prior coordination between these two attacks, their simultaneous occurrence and the "north-south encirclement" they created against Israel are sufficient to cause unease in Israel.
For a long time, Israel has viewed Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis as thorns in its side, attempting to suppress them through various means.
However, Israel's hardline policies have not only failed to eliminate these organizations but have also allowed them to grow stronger, fostering a deep-seated animosity towards Israel.
The escalation of confrontations between these organizations and Israel has posed a serious threat to Israeli national security.
The Houthi movement's transformation from a "Slipper Army" to a regional power armed with hypersonic missiles is astonishing in its rapidity and has sparked extensive attention and contemplation from the international community.
Traditional geopolitical theories posit that international order is dominated by a few major powers, with small nations struggling to play a substantive role in great power dynamics.
However, the rise of the Houthis indicates that advancements in technology enable smaller nations to possess game-changing capabilities.
The success of the Houthis is attributed to their flexible strategy and tenacious fighting spirit, but more importantly, they have seized the opportunity presented by technological advancement.
By acquiring external technological support and integrating it with their own circumstances, the Houthis achieved a leap in military capability in a short period, breaking the major powers' monopoly on cutting-edge military technology and altering the regional balance of power.
The rise of the Houthi movement will undoubtedly have profound implications for the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
First, as the military strength of the Houthis increases, their voice in the Yemeni issue will further rise, complicating the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the Yemeni conflict.
Second, the cooperation between the Houthis and Hezbollah will intensify the pressure on Israel regarding regional security.
Israel may face the dilemma of multi-front warfare in the future, weakening its military advantage in the Middle East.
Additionally, the Houthi rise sets a precedent for other small nations in the region.
If other countries or organizations emulate the Houthis' development model and acquire advanced weaponry for regional conflicts, the situation in the Middle East will become even more complex, posing greater challenges to peace and stability.
The rise of the Houthis marks a new phase in the geopolitical competition in the Middle East.
In this unpredictable region, the future trajectory remains to be observed. However, peace and development continue to be the main themes in the Middle East, and any attempts to resolve issues through force will only bring greater disaster to the region.
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