As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, this highly anticipated political event not only impacts the direction of domestic policies in the United States but also has profound implications for international relations.
With the election day nearing, some noteworthy phenomena are gradually emerging, which may provide clues about the election outcome.
In recent months, the number of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border has surged to unprecedented levels. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), 260,000 illegal immigrants were recorded at the border in September 2024 alone, representing nearly a 50% increase compared to the same period last year.
This figure reflects only official statistics; the actual situation may be even more severe.
This phenomenon highlights voters' anticipation for the upcoming election.
Many illegal immigrants believe that if Trump is elected again, he will reinstate strict border policies and enhance the construction of the border wall.
Thus, they choose to take the risk of entering the U.S. before new policies come into effect.
For example, José González, a 28-year-old man from El Salvador, stated in an interview: “I heard that if Trump is elected again, the border wall will be rebuilt, and it will be difficult to come in later, so my family and I decided to act now.”
At the same time, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is accelerating the deportation of illegal immigrants.
In the third quarter of 2024, the number of deported illegal immigrants reached 150,000, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year.
This acceleration in deportations is seen as a proactive response to potential policy changes.
A confidential ICE official stated, “We are preparing for possible new policies to ensure that existing cases can be resolved as quickly as possible.”
Another striking phenomenon is the dramatic fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
Since the beginning of 2024, the prices of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly increased.
According to CoinMarketCap, as of October 2024, the price of Bitcoin has surpassed $60,000, up more than 15%; while Ethereum's price has reached $4,500, reflecting an approximate 12% increase.
This market performance indicates investors' expectations for future policies.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies during his term, and his son, Donald Trump Jr., even runs his own cryptocurrency project.
In contrast, Vice President Harris advocates for stricter regulations on cryptocurrencies and a crackdown on related criminal activities.
The market seems to favor Trump's policy stance.
A representative from a cryptocurrency exchange based in New York said, “Trump's supportive attitude gives us great confidence. We believe that if he is elected again, the U.S. will become the global center for cryptocurrency.”
Another investor noted, “Harris's policies may restrict the development of cryptocurrencies, so we are more optimistic about Trump.”
In recent years, minority groups have been an essential support base for the Democratic Party.
However, the latest polls show a significant decline in Harris's support among minorities.
According to a survey by the Pew Research Center, Harris's support among Latino voters has dropped from 90% in 2020 to 70% in 2024; among Black voters, it has decreased from 60% to 45%; and support among Asian voters has plummeted to around 20%.
This change is closely linked to Harris's immigration policies.
Many minority voters are concerned that overly lenient immigration policies will lead to an influx of illegal immigrants, exacerbating job competition and tensions in the distribution of social resources.
Additionally, the Democratic Party's policies on gender identity and cultural diversity have sparked dissatisfaction among some conservative voters.
Mary Johnson, a leader in the African American community from Los Angeles, stated, “We support equality and diversity, but we don’t want to see illegal immigrants taking our job opportunities. Harris's policies make us uneasy.” Another Asian voter remarked, “We respect different cultures and lifestyles, but we do not agree with all gender identity policies. We prefer to support a more balanced government.”
In recent years, some American cities have seen a phenomenon known as “zero-dollar shopping,” where criminals exploit legal loopholes to commit petty theft without punishment.
This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in cities governed by the Democratic Party, drawing widespread social attention.
Recent events suggest that this issue may soon come to an end.
In September 2024, a security guard in Houston, Texas, fatally shot an unarmed suspect while intervening in a “zero-dollar shopping” incident.
Although this incident sparked controversy, the court ultimately ruled the guard not guilty, with the jury unanimously agreeing that his actions constituted self-defense.
This ruling is viewed as a rebuttal to the Democratic Party's lenient policies on minor crimes over the past four years.
States like California have also begun to amend relevant laws to increase penalties for petty theft.
For instance, California’s Proposition 47 previously stated that thefts involving less than $950 would not be prosecuted, but the state legislature recently passed a new bill reducing this threshold to $500 to combat the “zero-dollar shopping” phenomenon.
A Houston resident commented in an interview, “We are glad to see the return of law and order. The ‘zero-dollar shopping’ phenomenon has made our community unsafe. Now, we can finally breathe a sigh of relief.”
Infrastructure projects in the U.S. have long been under scrutiny but have faced criticism for delays and cost overruns.
Recently, multiple government infrastructure projects have started to accelerate, driven by complex political and economic considerations.
According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, in the third quarter of 2024, nationwide infrastructure projects completed about 20% of their annual plans, significantly higher than 10% in the same period last year.
Particularly in Texas and Florida, several large road and bridge projects have entered rapid construction phases, continuing work even at night and in adverse weather conditions.
Behind this trend is the contractors' anxiety about the future.
If Trump is re-elected, he may reevaluate existing infrastructure projects, which would have a significant impact on contractors' interests.
Therefore, many contractors are choosing to expedite their work to complete more before the election, aiming to settle payments sooner.
A project manager in Florida stated, “We realize that if Trump is elected again, current projects may face uncertainty. Thus, we decided to speed up progress to ensure we can complete most work by the end of the year.”
The results of the 2024 U.S. election may, to some extent, already be hinted at by these phenomena.
The surge in illegal immigration, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, the decline in support among minority voters, the end of the “zero-dollar shopping” phenomenon, and the acceleration of infrastructure projects collectively paint a complex picture, reflecting voters' and society's expectations and responses to different candidates' policies.
Although the election outcome remains uncertain, no single phenomenon can serve as the sole basis for prediction.
The ultimate victor will depend on voter choices and turnout.
Regardless of the outcome, these phenomena provide us with unique perspectives that help us better understand the current state and future direction of American society.
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