On October 19, the United States issued an ultimatum to Japan, demanding that it immediately strengthen restrictions on chip exports to China, or face severe sanctions and the potential loss of U.S. semiconductor subsidies.
This threat was raised by the "China Task Force" in the U.S. House of Representatives and the letter was delivered directly to the Japanese Embassy in the U.S.
Clearly, the U.S. action aims to rally allies to jointly pressure China's technology sector, forcing Japan to choose between economic interests and international pressure.
Japan's economic dependence on China is quite evident, especially in the semiconductor field.
In the first quarter of 2023, Japan's exports of equipment to China reached 521.2 billion yen, marking a new high since 2007.
Against this backdrop, in the face of ongoing U.S. pressure, Japan seems to be adopting a delaying strategy, attempting to find a balance between the U.S. and China.
The pace of the U.S. is particularly urgent, akin to a cheetah swiftly pursuing its prey.
In recent years, the U.S. has escalated its technological suppression of China, with the chip industry undoubtedly being one of its core targets.
Now, the U.S. has turned its focus to its ally Japan, compelling it to tighten technology exports to China.
As early as July of this year, Japan began implementing export controls on certain chip equipment, but this clearly has not satisfied U.S. demands.
The U.S. has not only issued verbal warnings but has also threatened economic sanctions.
This "carrot and stick" approach forces Japan to seriously consider the consequences.
Failure to comply could lead the U.S. to strip Japan of semiconductor subsidies, a significant blow to many Japanese companies closely tied to U.S. supply chains.
Despite the immense pressure from the U.S., Japan's economic relationship with China is equally complex, making concessions far from easy.
Data shows that the total trade volume between China and Japan reached 318 billion USD in 2023, highlighting Japan's economic reliance on China.
Especially in the area of chip exports, semiconductor equipment exports in just the first quarter of this year set a historical high.
To expect Japan to fully cooperate with the U.S. in cutting off supply is effectively asking it to cut off its own lifeline.
Japan's delaying attitude is, in fact, a strategy to buy itself time and space.
Whether cooperating with China or compromising with the U.S., Japan is striving to find a subtle balance.
From the U.S. perspective, pressuring Japan to join in the technological blockade against China is a way to leverage Japan's resources to fill its own technological gaps.
Japan holds a significant position in the semiconductor production equipment and related materials technology sectors; suppressing China not only weakens a competitor but also controls Japan's high-end technology supply chain, making it more reliant on the U.S. in the future.
This strategy can be likened to "building a platform while secretly laying a trap," attempting to achieve two objectives with one action.
However, the U.S. seems to underestimate Japan's economic lifeline.
Japan occupies a substantial share of the global semiconductor equipment market, while China is one of the largest importers of semiconductor equipment in the world.
Forcing Japan to completely abandon the Chinese market is akin to asking it to forsake its golden egg, which would not only result in massive economic losses but could also trigger a deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations.
All aspects of Sino-Japanese economic cooperation would be affected.
Clearly, the warning letter from the U.S. serves as an ultimatum, but whether Japan will yield remains uncertain.
As a rapidly rising economic power after the war, Japan does not merely follow U.S. directives but has its own considerations and principles.
Choosing to delay under pressure does not mean Japan will remain in this state indefinitely.
The complexity of U.S.-China relations dictates that any action taken by either side could trigger a chain reaction; Japan must navigate carefully without blindly following.
The future development of the situation is full of uncertainties. If Japan continues to take a vague stance on U.S. demands, the U.S. may increase pressure and even take concrete actions.
Should Japan yield, China is certain not to sit idly by.
The tech competition between the U.S. and China will become increasingly fierce, and U.S. "coercion" of Japan could serve as a catalyst, further escalating a "new cold war" in the global tech arena.
Who will ultimately be the winner is not a simple answer.
However, it is certain that the U.S. attempts to "choke" China in the chip sector will harm not only China's interests but also impose a heavy cost on the entire technology supply chain.
As a "supporting actor" in this game, how Japan will find its foothold in this complex situation remains to be seen.
Comentarios