The Cold War of the last century ended with the victory of the United States, which led many to believe that the U.S. might be able to defeat China in a similar manner.
However, is this viewpoint reasonable? Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong presented a different perspective at the 2021 Davos Economic Forum, suggesting that China will not collapse like the Soviet Union did.
During the Cold War, the two superpowers, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, engaged in decades-long confrontations across ideology, economics, and military fields.
This intangible war influenced the global political and economic landscape.
Although the Cold War did not escalate into a full-scale war, the confrontations between the two powers never ceased.
Ultimately, the Soviet Union was worn down by this prolonged struggle, and the U.S. emerged victorious.
Some believe that America's success was achieved by "outlasting" the Soviet Union.
In the early stages of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union created a bipolar world order through global divisions and competition.
Whether in Europe, Asia, or Latin America, the two countries engaged in intense rivalries.
From the Korean War to the Vietnam War, from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the Soviet-Afghan War, each event was a reflection of U.S.-Soviet antagonism.
These conflicts involved not only ideological confrontations but also affected the global order and distribution of strategic resources.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was not due to a single decisive military defeat but rather the culmination of long-term economic and political problems.
During the mid-Cold War, the U.S., with its strong economic foundation and technological innovations, gradually gained an upper hand in the arms race.
In the 1970s, the Soviet Union's attempt to strengthen its military power to compete with the U.S. became a catalyst for economic collapse.
To sustain enormous military expenditures, the Soviet Union had to allocate substantial resources, which hindered domestic economic development, led to declining living standards, and exacerbated social conflicts.
Meanwhile, the U.S., leveraging its economic and technological advantages, continually reinforced its defense, particularly in nuclear weapons and space, engaging in intense competition with the Soviet Union.
In the 1980s, U.S. President Ronald Reagan proposed the "Star Wars" program, known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), aimed at establishing a space-based missile defense system to further intensify Soviet military pressure.
Although the initiative was not fully realized, it dealt a significant psychological and economic blow to the Soviet Union, forcing Soviet leaders to confront the reality that their excessive efforts to compete with the U.S. were worsening their economic situation.
Apart from the arms race, the Soviet Union's internal economic weaknesses were also a key factor in its collapse.
The U.S. weakened the Soviet economy through economic sanctions and financial blockades.
By the late 1980s, the Soviet economic system had become unwieldy and unable to adapt to the globalized economy.
Internal reform failures and deteriorating relations with Eastern European countries further exacerbated the economic crisis, ultimately leading to the Soviet Union's dissolution.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the U.S. became the world's sole superpower.
However, as the new century began, the U.S. found its absolute dominance gradually diminishing, with China emerging as a major factor.
To maintain its superior position, the U.S. began a series of measures to contain China.
The formation of U.S.-China tensions did not occur overnight. After China joined the World Trade Organization, the U.S. hoped that China's economy would integrate into the global market system and gradually adopt Western political and economic models.
However, China did not act according to U.S. expectations; instead, it relied on its own systemic advantages to achieve rapid economic growth, particularly demonstrating strong competitiveness in infrastructure, manufacturing upgrades, and technological innovation.
China's active involvement in international affairs, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, enhanced its global influence but also triggered strategic concerns in the U.S.
To contain China's further development, the U.S. engaged in comprehensive confrontation across multiple fields, with economic friction being particularly evident.
Since 2018, the U.S.-China trade war has become a global focal point.
The U.S. imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, attempting to undermine China's export-oriented economy.
This trade war not only led to a decrease in trade volume between the two countries but also further intensified global supply chain tensions.
In the technology sector, the U.S.'s containment of China has been particularly significant. The Huawei case is a typical example.
As a leading global telecommunications equipment provider, Huawei's rise triggered significant alarm in the U.S.
The U.S. not only used legal means to restrict Huawei's business in the American market but also persuaded several allies to ban Huawei's 5G technology, citing security concerns about its equipment.
However, behind this was more concern about China's rapid advancement in high-tech fields.
In addition to economic and technological aspects, military confrontation is also a key method for the U.S. to contain China.
In recent years, the U.S. has significantly increased its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, intending to send a strong signal to China.
Military cooperation between the U.S. and its allies has also become tighter, particularly in countries like Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, where the U.S. has strengthened military base construction and defense system deployment.
This military presence is not only to maintain U.S. strategic interests in the region but also to counter China's influence in Asia.
Additionally, the U.S. has tried to isolate China through diplomatic means, promoting policies against China in international multilateral institutions.
The U.S. hopes to shape international opinion through this approach and gain support from more countries to restrain China's voice in global affairs.
In response to these containment measures, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong offered profound insights into U.S.-China relations at the Davos Forum.
He believes that China will not collapse like the Soviet Union, which is not only a deep insight into U.S.-China relations but also an objective assessment of China's strength.
Compared to the Soviet Union, China possesses a stronger economic foundation, more mature integration into the globalized economy, and flexible policy tools, all of which are significant advantages for China when facing U.S. pressure.
China's economic strength is the foundation for resisting external pressure. Although the Soviet Union had strong military power during its time, its national economy could never match the U.S., which was one of the main reasons for the Soviet collapse.
Since its reform and opening up, China has gradually integrated into the global market economy and become a crucial hub for global manufacturing and trade.
China is not only the world's largest manufacturer but also rapidly emerging in high-end industries such as artificial intelligence and 5G technology.
Even amidst the U.S.-China trade war, China has maintained steady economic growth, demonstrating strong economic resilience.
This deep integration into the global economy means that China plays a key role in global supply chains, making U.S. economic sanctions less effective than those applied to the Soviet Union.
Moreover, China has adopted a more pragmatic and extensive approach to international cooperation in diplomacy.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has deepened cooperation with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and finance.
This has given China more partners in global affairs, even if the U.S. tries to isolate China through alliances, China's economic and diplomatic connections with various countries provide strong support.
Lee Hsien Loong also pointed out that although China and the U.S. have competition in many areas, cooperation between the two remains crucial.
As the two largest economies in the world, the economic ties between China and the U.S. cannot be easily severed.
American multinational corporations have significant interests in the Chinese market, and China also needs to cooperate with the U.S. to address common problems.
The complexity of global supply chains makes decoupling between China and the U.S. impractical, and cooperation in trade, technology, and climate change remains important.
In global governance, cooperation between China and the U.S. is also indispensable.
Whether addressing climate change, public health crises, or regional security issues, cooperation between China and the U.S. is essential.
China actively participates in international affairs, such as promoting the Paris Climate Agreement, playing a significant role in global emissions reduction and green energy development, while the U.S.'s involvement in these areas is also important.
The harmonious relationship between China and the U.S. is not only crucial for their own development but also impacts the future of the world.
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