On May 17 this year, Mongolia officially announced its intention to actively attract external investment for the development of its oil fields.
Historically, the country’s oil field development has largely relied on China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) as a partner.
As the saying goes, "distant relatives are not as reliable as nearby neighbors." However, Mongolia seems reluctant to cooperate more closely with China.
Some local NGOs have repeatedly protested CNPC's operations, severely hindering the business development of Chinese enterprises in the country.
This is not an isolated incident; previously, several NGOs in Mongolia have openly criticized investments from Chinese companies and even urged the government to restrict the entry of personnel and management from Chinese-funded enterprises.
On the surface, these protests appear to be driven by environmental concerns, but they seem more like "commercial tools," aiming to expel Chinese companies to attract investors from other countries to develop local mineral resources and energy.
For a long time, Mongolia has sought to strengthen cooperation with the United States in key mineral sectors, but negotiations often yield little substantial progress.
Especially after China restricted rare earth exports, Mongolia’s rare earth resources have drawn attention from various countries.
On August 2 of this year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited countries around China, including Mongolia, trying to accelerate cooperation in the limited time available.
Mongolia's foreign minister stated in an interview that the U.S., as a "third neighbor," would support Mongolia’s development, attempting to help Mongolia become a developed country through various means.
The approach of this support is straightforward: develop mineral resources.
Mongolia not only possesses rich copper, uranium, and rare earth resources but also has energy resources such as coal and oil, which are "bargaining chips" for Mongolia in international cooperation.
Mongolia's Prime Minister noted that despite its rich resources, the country lags in extraction technology and infrastructure, urgently needing external investment to enhance its competitiveness in attracting foreign capital.
Against this backdrop, India, which just concluded its five-year elections, has begun to strengthen ties with Mongolia.
After being re-elected, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi intends to participate in the development of Mongolia's mineral resources.
This year, Mongolia plans to establish a new coking coal plant, coinciding with India's increasing demand for coking coal imports amid rapid infrastructure development. Therefore, India hopes to find ready-made cooperation opportunities in Mongolia.
However, Mongolia faces a significant challenge: as a landlocked country, it must figure out how to transport mineral resources to international markets cost-effectively and efficiently.
To this end, India and Mongolia have started to actively explore cooperation plans.
India maintains good relations with Russia and hopes to utilize the Vladivostok port through the "Far East Corridor" for transportation. However, in terms of cost and time, this route is not economical.
Mongolia seeks to reach Tianjin Port directly via China’s railway network, then ship to India from Tianjin. However, due to the tense relations between the two countries, India approaches this plan with caution.
Despite both India and Mongolia expressing a desire to "reduce reliance on China," establishing an efficient, low-cost transportation route still depends on China’s support.
Mongolia is well aware of this, which is why it has been focused on the construction of the China-Mongolia railway corridor, particularly involving the Tumen River cooperation project among China, Russia, and North Korea.
The development of the Tumen River has long been an important issue in Northeast Asia's geopolitics. If the three countries can cooperate, it will open up a new strategic port economic zone in Northeast Asia.
For Mongolia, in the past, goods were transported to Tianjin Port via rail.
If the Tumen River can be successfully developed, it would present a significant opportunity for Mongolia’s economic growth.
At this year’s Eastern Economic Forum, Mongolia once again mentioned the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor, emphasizing the critical role of Chinese port resources in trade cooperation among the three countries.
Mongolia also realizes that regardless of which country it collaborates with, it cannot entirely discard China as an important economic partner.
It should be noted that trade with China accounts for nearly 70% of Mongolia’s total foreign trade, and other export goods also rely on Tianjin Port for transshipment.
In this context, following the West’s rhetoric and seeking to "decouple" will only sever its own "economic lifeline."
Those NGOs that continuously promote the "China threat theory" and accuse China are essentially doing so to secure external funding, and Mongolia's economic well-being has little relevance to them.
They only care about finding new topics to "slander China," while damaging Mongolia's economic interests is secondary.
In summary, if this country, caught in the "resource curse," fails to recognize reality and continues to waver on key issues, it will ultimately be only themselves who suffer.
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