After years of negotiation, Vietnam has finally made a compromise on railway construction.
In less than two months, Vietnam and China signed two joint statements, clearly indicating the acceleration of three cross-border railway projects, striving for "railway synchronization."
However, these three railways are not the high-speed rail projects that Vietnam has long desired.
In recent years, progress on Vietnam's high-speed rail has been slow, repeatedly starting and stalling. What has been happening?
In the joint statements on August 20 and October 14, China and Vietnam signed up to 26 cooperation documents, emphasizing the importance of railway connectivity.
The three railways are as follows:
1. A railway from Vietnam's Lao Cai to the capital Hanoi, extending to Haiphong, using the 1435mm standard gauge, directly connecting with Kunming, Yunnan, China.
2. A railway extending from Mong Cai along the coastline to Ha Long, and then to Haiphong, connecting to Fangchenggang in Guangxi, China.
3. A railway connecting the border town of Lang Son in Vietnam to the capital Hanoi, linking with Nanning in Guangxi.
These three railways will form a complete railway network in northern Vietnam centered around Hanoi, directly linking with Yunnan and Guangxi in China.
According to the statements, both sides will fully utilize the railway cooperation mechanism to accelerate the construction of the three railways, especially the standard gauge railway connection from Lao Cai to Lao Cai.
This indicates that the China-Vietnam "railway synchronization" project has finally entered a new phase.
In the past, Vietnam was reluctant to align its railway construction with China, but now it has actively compromised, opting for the same 1435mm standard gauge.
The reason for this shift is primarily due to the rapid development of railway construction in Southeast Asia, with Vietnam facing the risk of being "marginalized."
Laos opened the China-Laos Railway in 2021, and its successful operation significantly boosted the movement of people and goods, bringing notable economic benefits and enhancing its regional standing.
This success undoubtedly stimulated a sense of urgency among neighboring countries, especially Vietnam.
Meanwhile, Thailand is also accelerating its railway connections with China, trying to link with the China-Laos Railway.
Cambodia is gradually bypassing Vietnam in constructing the China-Laos-Cambodia Railway, adding more pressure on Vietnam.
In light of this situation, Vietnam has no choice but to accelerate the railway integration process with China to avoid further marginalization.
Despite the continued growth of trade between China and Vietnam, the progress of Vietnam's high-speed rail project still faces numerous challenges.
As early as 2001, Vietnam proposed the North-South high-speed railway project, but it has yet to be realized.
Although there were discussions with multiple countries, stringent conditions proposed by Vietnam have kept the project from starting.
The project aims to connect the capital Hanoi and the southern economic center Ho Chi Minh City, with a total length of 1541 kilometers and an estimated total investment exceeding $60 billion.
Given Vietnam's economic situation, it is clear that such a massive investment is unsustainable.
Additionally, Vietnam faces significant doubts about project profitability and repayment capacity when seeking external funding.
Vietnam has attempted to independently construct high-speed rail to reduce reliance on foreign capital, but this goal seems overly idealistic due to shortages in funding and technology.
Even when external funding is needed, Vietnam still hopes to receive loans while also transferring technology from third parties, which appears quite unrealistic.
Vietnam's railway construction has entered a new stage, and the construction of the three northern railways may provide opportunities for future high-speed rail projects.
If Vietnam can seize the current opportunity to achieve railway integration with China, it may change its passive position in Southeast Asia.
However, whether Vietnam can truly realize its high-speed rail dream depends on its ability to overcome existing difficulties and challenges.
Comments